METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Flyweight
VS
23%
Espinosa
77%
Schnell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:23
★ Official Result
Matt SchnellwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:23
def. Jordan Espinosa · UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Schnell
→
Actual result
Schnell wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Schnell is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Schnell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Risk flags
Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
EspinosaSchnell
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Espinosa
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Espinosa
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.5
37.5
28.3
Performance Avg
39.6
25
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
45
Espinosa
Schnell
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.7
/ 10
0.9
/ 10
1.0
Style: Pressure
4.3
8.7
Style: Volume
5.5
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Espinosa
Schnell
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
4.8
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.4
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
4.3
0
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Espinosa
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Espinosa
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Espinosa
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
43%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Espinosa
Schnell
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.3
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
EspinosaSchnell
Strike Zones
Espinosa
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedSchnell
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Espinosa targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (67% of attacks) — Espinosa absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Espinosa
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0
Espinosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottDecision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
David DvorakDecision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Mark De La RosaDecision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Alex PerezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08
Schnell · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Alessandro CostaKO/TKO
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L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickDecision
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L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenSubmission
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L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegKO/TKO
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