UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler
Newark, USA
3 Aug 2019
Flyweight
VS
23%
Espinosa
77%
Schnell
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:23
JE
Jordan Espinosa
"The Gamer"
15 – 9
5'6"69" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
Matt
Matt Schnell
"Danger"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded36 yrsOrthodox70" reach5'8"
CFR 38

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Schnell

Schnell is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Schnell has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.

Striking split: Schnell throws more volume but Espinosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Schnell has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Espinosa
Schnell
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
69"
Reach
+70"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Espinosa
Schnell
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.5
38.1
28.3
Performance Avg
40.7
25
Quality of Victory
37
45
Momentum Score
45
Espinosa
Schnell
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
1.6
48%
Strike Accuracy
41%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.9
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
0
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
5Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Espinosa
Schnell
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.8
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
3.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Espinosa
Schnell
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
2
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.4 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/24 fights
Chin rating based on
17/27 fights
Espinosa
Schnell
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
45
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Espinosa
Schnell
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
43%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
3
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Espinosa
Schnell
Striking0.7 / 0.9Volume8.7 / 5.5Grappling2.4 / 4.8Wrestling1.7 / 3.4Submission0.0 / 4.3Pressure1.0 / 4.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.9
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.8
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
4.3
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.4
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.5
Espinosa
Strike Zones
Schnell
Espinosa
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 absorbed
Schnell
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY1LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY3LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Espinosa targets the legs (60% of attacks) — Schnell absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Schnell targets the head (67% of attacks) — Espinosa absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Espinosa
RND
Schnell
0/0R00/0

Espinosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.1
0104.5W1.7L2.8L4.5W5.5L5.6L2019-032019-082020-012020-062020-092021-03
WinLossTrend

Schnell · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.8
0102.7L1.5L4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.7W2.3L5.9W2.9L3.3L2.9L5.0W3.5L2016-122019-032022-052024-092025-11
WinLossTrend

Espinosa · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Tim ElliottRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Dec · R3
David DvorakRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
W · Dec · R3
Mark De La RosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Eye vs. Calvillo · 2020-06
L · Sub · R1
Alex PerezRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Dos Santos · 2020-01
L · Sub · R1
Matt SchnellRating 1.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Lawler · 2019-08

Schnell · Last 5

Upcoming
Imanol Rodriguez
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
L · Sub · R1
Joseph MoralesRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · 2025-11
W · Dec · R3
Jimmy FlickRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Sub · R2
Cody DurdenRating 2.9
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · 2024-09
L · KO · R2
Steve ErcegRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03

News & Media

Jordan Espinosa · Matt Schnell
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