UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade
Las Vegas, USA
23 Apr 2022
Lightweight
VS
46%
Guida
54%
Puelles
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:01
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Puelles
This is a genuine toss-up — Guida at 46% vs Puelles at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Guida throws more volume but Puelles connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Guida's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Puelles has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Guida
Puelles
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
+5'10"
70"
Reach
+72"
44
Age
+30
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Guida
Puelles
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.2
52.9
40.7
Performance Avg
45.5
35
Quality of Victory
39
78
Momentum Score
78
Guida
Puelles
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.6
36%
Strike Accuracy
49%
2.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.1
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
1
Head
1
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
1Ground1
Guida
Puelles
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
3.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
5.8
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Guida
Puelles
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
8
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
14 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
37/60 fights
Chin rating based on
9/18 fights
Guida
Puelles
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
78
78
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R3
Guida
Puelles
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
39%
60%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
3
11
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Guida
Puelles
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.1
3.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.8
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.0
2.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
6.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.9
5.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.3
GuidaPuelles
Strike Zones
Guida
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedPuelles
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Guida targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Puelles absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Puelles targets the head (100% of attacks) — Guida absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Guida
RND
Puelles
0/0R00/0
Guida · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Puelles · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Guida · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Chase HooperRating 2.3Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · 2023-12
L · Dec · R3
Rafa GarciaRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
W · Dec · R3
Scott HoltzmanRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Holland · 2022-12
L · Sub · R1
Claudio PuellesRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
Puelles · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Joaquim SilvaRating 6.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Fares ZiamRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R2
Dan HookerRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · 2022-11
W · Sub · R1
Clay GuidaRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lemos vs. Andrade · 2022-04
W · Sub · R3
Chris GruetzemacherRating 5.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Aldo · 2021-12