METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
47%
Holland
53%
Oleksiejczuk
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:34
★ Official Result
Kevin HollandwinsSubmissionR1 · 1:34
def. Michal Oleksiejczuk · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Oleksiejczuk
→
Actual result
Holland wins
Submission · R1
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 47% vs Oleksiejczuk at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oleksiejczuk has a chin rating of 24 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
HollandOleksiejczuk
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
81"+
Reach
74"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
52.9
49.3
Performance Avg
54.0
44
Quality of Victory
53
51
Momentum Score
52
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.3
/ 10
9.1
/ 10
6.5
Style: Pressure
7.3
3.6
Style: Volume
2.7
5 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
3
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.8
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
2.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
6
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
24
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
6
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
19/31 fights
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
52
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
6
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.1
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.7
HollandOleksiejczuk
Strike Zones
Holland
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedOleksiejczuk
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (63% of attacks) — Oleksiejczuk absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Oleksiejczuk targets the head (63% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holland
RND
Oleksiejczuk
0/0R00/0
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L · Sub · R1
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