UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier
Newark, USA
1 Jun 2024
Middleweight
VS
46%
Holland
54%
Oleksiejczuk
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:34
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Oleksiejczuk
This is a genuine toss-up — Holland at 46% vs Oleksiejczuk at 54% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Oleksiejczuk has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Holland's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Oleksiejczuk has a chin rating of 36 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'0"
81"+
Reach
74"
33
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.0
54.6
49.3
Performance Avg
55.3
44
Quality of Victory
53
51
Momentum Score
52
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
2.5
52%
Strike Accuracy
54%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
5
3
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground2
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
3.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
2.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
36
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
3
Sub Losses
5
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
6 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
29/44 fights
Chin rating based on
19/31 fights
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
52
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
69%
80%
5
KO / TKO Wins
8
6
Submission Wins
0
5
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holland
Oleksiejczuk
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.2
3.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
2.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.4
3.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
HollandOleksiejczuk
Strike Zones
Holland
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedOleksiejczuk
Attacking
8 landedAbsorbing
8 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holland targets the head (63% of attacks) — Oleksiejczuk absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯Oleksiejczuk targets the head (63% of attacks) — Holland absorbs 63% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holland
RND
Oleksiejczuk
0/0R00/0
Holland · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.4WinLossTrend
Oleksiejczuk · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Holland · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Randy BrownRating 5.4Decision
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Mike MalottRating 7.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Daniel RodriguezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · Sub · R2
Vicente LuqueRating 6.7Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Dec · R3
Gunnar NelsonRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · 2025-03
Oleksiejczuk · Last 5
Upcoming
Abus MagomedovUFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Marc-Andre BarriaultRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
W · KO · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 6.1KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
W · KO · R1
Sedriques DumasRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Shara MagomedovRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08