UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
Las Vegas, USA
30 Dec 2011
Light Heavyweight
VS
35%
Matyushenko
65%
Gustafsson
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:13
VM
Vladimir Matyushenko
"The Janitor"
27 – 8
6'0"74" reachOrthodox55 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 14
AG
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18 – 8
Well-Rounded4-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox79" reach6'5"
CFR 25

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Gustafsson

Gustafsson holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Matyushenko has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 11 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Gustafsson throws more volume but Matyushenko connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Matyushenko's chin rating of 20 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Gustafsson has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'5"
74"
Reach
+79"
55
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
13.5
24.8
47.3
Performance Avg
50.3
40
Quality of Victory
47
20
Momentum Score
39
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.9
1.2
46%
Strike Accuracy
44%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
3 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
7
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
5Distance6
0Clinch0
0Ground4
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.3
1.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
20
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.7 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
12/35 fights
Chin rating based on
18/26 fights
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
39
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R4
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R5
Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
70%
3
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
2
4
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Matyushenko
Gustafsson
Striking5.5 / 6.1Volume5.7 / 3.5Grappling1.4 / 2.3Wrestling1.0 / 1.6Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.8 / 6.6
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
1.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.3
1.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.6
5.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.5
Matyushenko
Strike Zones
Gustafsson
Matyushenko
Attacking
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Gustafsson
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD1BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Matyushenko targets the head (80% of attacks) — Gustafsson absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Gustafsson targets the head (70% of attacks) — Matyushenko absorbs 70% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Matyushenko
RND
Gustafsson
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Matyushenko · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W2.2L4.5W4.5W3.3L5.0W5.0W1.5L1.5L2001-062003-022010-032011-042013-01
WinLossTrend

Gustafsson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W1.5L5.2W5.0W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W7.3L5.1W1.5L5.5L5.1W5.9W4.5L4.5L1.5L2.7L2009-112011-122015-012019-062022-07
WinLossTrend

Matyushenko · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Ryan BaderRating 1.5
Submission
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson · 2013-01
L · KO · R1
Alexander GustafssonRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem · 2011-12
W · KO · R1
Jason BrilzRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 129: St-Pierre vs Shields · 2011-04
W · KO · R1
Alexandre FerreiraRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami · 2010-11
L · KO · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3
KO/TKO
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08

Gustafsson · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Nikita KrylovRating 2.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07
L · Sub · R1
Fabricio WerdumRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
L · Sub · R4
Anthony SmithRating 4.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Smith · 2019-06
L · KO · R3
Jon JonesRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC 232: Jones vs. Gustafsson 2 · 2018-12
W · KO · R5
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs. Teixeira · 2017-05

News & Media

Vladimir Matyushenko · Alexander Gustafsson
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