UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowboy
Pittsburgh, USA
21 Feb 2016
Welterweight
VS
22%
Garcia
78%
Strickland
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 4:25
AG
Alex Garcia
"The Dominican Nightmare"
15 – 6
5'9"72" reachOrthodox38 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 17
Sean
Sean Strickland
31 – 7
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak35 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'1"
CFR 58

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Strickland

Strickland is a strong favourite at 78% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 41 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Strickland has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Strickland has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Garcia
Strickland
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+6'1"
72"
Reach
+76"
38
Age
+35
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Garcia
Strickland
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.6
57.7
46.3
Performance Avg
50.9
44
Quality of Victory
37
40
Momentum Score
100
Garcia
Strickland
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.1
32%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.2
2 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
31
2
Body
0
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance32
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Garcia
Strickland
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.6
/ 10
2.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.4
2.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.6
1
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garcia
Strickland
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
46
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
9 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/21 fights
Chin rating based on
25/38 fights
Garcia
Strickland
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
40
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Garcia
Strickland
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
5
1
Submission Wins
1
2
Decision Wins
12

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garcia
Strickland
Striking5.0 / 4.2Volume4.2 / 6.8Grappling2.6 / 2.0Wrestling1.8 / 1.4Submission2.0 / 0.6Pressure5.7 / 4.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.2
2.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.4
2.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.6
5.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
4.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.8
Garcia
Strike Zones
Strickland
Garcia
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
31HEAD0BODY3LEGS34 absorbed
Strickland
Attacking
31HEAD0BODY3LEGS34 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Garcia targets the head (67% of attacks) — Strickland absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Strickland targets the head (91% of attacks) — Garcia absorbs 91% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garcia
RND
Strickland
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Garcia · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W4.5W6.1L4.5W5.1L5.0W5.6L6.2W5.5L5.7L2013-122015-072017-062018-10
WinLossTrend

Strickland · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W4.5W6.0L4.5W5.5W4.5W6.6L4.7W2.0L5.2W4.5W6.6W4.5W4.5W5.4W3.6L6.5L5.9W5.9W5.9W7.4L5.5W7.4L6.7W6.4W2014-032017-112022-022024-062026-05
WinLossTrend

Garcia · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 5.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oezdemir vs. Smith · 2018-10
L · Dec · R3
Ryan LaFlareRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
W · Sub · R2
Muslim SalikhovRating 6.2
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs. Gastelum · 2017-11
L · Dec · R3
Tim MeansRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06
W · KO · R1
Mike PyleRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 207: Nunes vs. Rousey · 2016-12

Strickland · Last 5

W · Dec · R5
Khamzat ChimaevRating 6.4
Decision
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · KO · R3
Anthony HernandezRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R5
Paulo CostaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
L · Dec · R5
Dricus Du PlessisRating 7.4
Decision
UFC 297: Strickland vs. Du Plessis · 2024-01

News & Media

Alex Garcia · Sean Strickland
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