UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch
Broomfield, USA
14 Feb 2015
Middleweight
VS
54%
Kelly
46%
Walsh
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DK
Daniel Kelly
13 – 4
6'0"70" reachSouthpaw48 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
PW
Patrick Walsh
"The Beast of the East"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded37 yrs5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Kelly

This is a genuine toss-up — Kelly at 54% vs Walsh at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Kelly has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Kelly's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Kelly
Walsh
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
70"
Reach
48
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
—
Kelly
Walsh
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.0
13.5
44.4
Performance Avg
35.0
34
Quality of Victory
25
65
Momentum Score
46
Kelly
Walsh
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
0.4
41%
Strike Accuracy
11%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
9
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
23Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Kelly
Walsh
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.9
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
2.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Kelly
Walsh
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
98
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
10/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Kelly
Walsh
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
46
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Kelly
Walsh
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Kelly
Walsh
Striking2.9 / 1.0Volume6.5 / 9.0Grappling2.9 / 2.4Wrestling2.0 / 1.7Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure4.1 / 1.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.5
6.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.0
Kelly
Strike Zones
Walsh
Kelly
Attacking
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Walsh
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
22HEAD1BODY0LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Kelly targets the head (96% of attacks) — Walsh absorbs 96% of strikes there
🎯Walsh targets the head (100% of attacks) — Kelly absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Kelly
RND
Walsh
0/0R00/0

Kelly · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.0W4.5W1.5L4.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W1.8L5.5L1.5L2014-112015-112017-032018-05
WinLossTrend

Walsh · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0104.5W5.5L2014-072015-02
WinLossTrend

Kelly · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Tom BreeseRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Till · 2018-05
L · Dec · R3
Elias TheodorouRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Werdum vs. Tybura · 2017-11
L · KO · R1
Derek BrunsonRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
W · Dec · R3
Rashad EvansRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 209: Woodley vs. Thompson 2 · 2017-03
W · Dec · R3
Chris CamozziRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Brunson · 2016-11

Walsh · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Daniel KellyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Thatch · 2015-02
W · Dec · R3
Daniel SpohnRating 4.5
Decision
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edgar vs. Team Penn Finale · 2014-07

News & Media

Daniel Kelly · Patrick Walsh
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