UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Women's Bantamweight
VS
51%
Aldana
49%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Irene
Irene Aldana
15 – 8
5'9"68" reachOrthodox38 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Karol
Karol Rosa
19 – 7
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 49

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aldana

This is a genuine toss-up — Aldana at 51% vs Rosa at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aldana has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.

Striking split: Aldana throws more volume but Rosa connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Aldana
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
67"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldana
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
48.8
46.5
Performance Avg
41.7
39
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
80
Aldana
Rosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.1
2.0
45%
Strike Accuracy
57%
4.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.3
3 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
51
Head
55
10
Body
3
0
Leg
34
RangeRange
61Distance92
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aldana
Rosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldana
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
92
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/26 fights
Aldana
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
80
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aldana
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldana
Rosa
Striking4.9 / 1.3Volume5.1 / 9.3Grappling2.2 / 2.4Wrestling1.5 / 1.7Submission1.3 / 0.0Pressure5.2 / 2.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.3
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
2.0
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.3
Aldana
Strike Zones
Rosa
Aldana
Attacking
51HEAD10BODY0LEGS61 landed
Absorbing
55HEAD3BODY34LEGS92 absorbed
Rosa
Attacking
55HEAD3BODY34LEGS92 landed
Absorbing
51HEAD10BODY0LEGS61 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldana targets the head (84% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (60% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 60% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldana
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0

Aldana · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.8L4.5W4.5W5.5W6.1L4.5W5.4W5.6L5.1W6.8W6.7L5.2W6.0L2016-122019-052020-102023-122024-09
WinLossTrend

Rosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W4.5W5.9W4.5W5.5L4.5W6.0L4.6W6.3L4.5W6.5L5.2W2019-082021-102023-042024-082025-08
WinLossTrend

Aldana · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontRating 6
Decision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaRating 5.2
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesRating 6.7
Decision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonRating 6.8
KO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosRating 5.1
KO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07

Rosa · Last 5

Upcoming
Luana Santos
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Horiguchi · 2026-06
W · Dec · R3
Nora CornolleRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Ailin PerezRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · 2025-01
W · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · 2024-08
L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12

News & Media

Irene Aldana · Karol Rosa
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