METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Las Vegas, USA
16 Dec 2023
Women's Bantamweight
VS
53%
Aldana
47%
Rosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Irene AldanawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Karol Rosa · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Aldana
→
Actual result
Aldana wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Aldana at 53% vs Rosa at 47% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Aldana has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 14 points.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AldanaRosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Aldana
Rosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'5"
68"+
Reach
67"
38
Age
+31
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aldana
Rosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.5
44.5
46.5
Performance Avg
39.6
39
Quality of Victory
25
81
Momentum Score
65
Aldana
Rosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.9
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
5.2
Style: Pressure
1.9
5.1
Style: Volume
9.2
3 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
0 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
51
Head
55
10
Body
3
0
Leg
34
RangeRange
61Distance92
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aldana
Rosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.2
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
1.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
1.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aldana
Rosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
88
90
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/23 fights
Chin rating based on
13/26 fights
Aldana
Rosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
81
65
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Aldana
Rosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
3
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Aldana
Rosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.2
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.9
5.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
9.2
AldanaRosa
Strike Zones
Aldana
Attacking
61 landedAbsorbing
92 absorbedRosa
Attacking
92 landedAbsorbing
61 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Aldana targets the head (84% of attacks) — Rosa absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Rosa targets the head (60% of attacks) — Aldana absorbs 60% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Aldana
RND
Rosa
0/0R00/0
Aldana · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Norma DumontDecision
UFC 306: Riyadh Season Noche UFC · 2024-09
W · Dec · R3
Karol RosaDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12
L · Dec · R5
Amanda NunesDecision
UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · 2023-06
W · KO · R3
Macy ChiassonKO/TKO
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
W · KO · R1
Yana SantosKO/TKO
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
Rosa · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Luana SantosDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Nora CornolleDecision
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Ailin PerezDecision
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W · Dec · R3
Pannie KianzadDecision
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L · Dec · R3
Irene AldanaDecision
UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · 2023-12