UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero
Las Vegas, USA
7 Mar 2020
Lightweight
VS
55%
Madsen
45%
Hubbard
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Madsen
This is a genuine toss-up — Madsen at 55% vs Hubbard at 45% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Madsen has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Madsen's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Madsen
Hubbard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'10"
72"+
Reach
71"
41
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Madsen
Hubbard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
39.0
31.7
46.9
Performance Avg
28.7
34
Quality of Victory
26
79
Momentum Score
41
Madsen
Hubbard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.6
50%
Strike Accuracy
46%
3.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
19
0
Body
4
1
Leg
4
RangeRange
3Distance24
2Clinch3
1Ground0
Madsen
Hubbard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Madsen
Hubbard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
64
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Madsen
Hubbard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
41
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Madsen
Hubbard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Madsen
Hubbard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
MadsenHubbard
Strike Zones
Madsen
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
27 absorbedHubbard
Attacking
27 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Madsen targets the head (83% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Hubbard targets the head (70% of attacks) — Madsen absorbs 70% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Madsen
RND
Hubbard
0/0R00/0
Madsen · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Hubbard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Madsen · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Jared GordonRating 1.9KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
L · Sub · R3
Grant DawsonRating 5.5Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Vinc PichelRating 4.7Decision
UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · 2022-04
W · Dec · R3
Clay GuidaRating 5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Gastelum · 2021-08
W · Dec · R3
Austin HubbardRating 4.5Decision
UFC 248: Adesanya vs. Romero · 2020-03
Hubbard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
MarQuel MederosRating 6.8Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Alexander HernandezRating 6.4Decision
UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Michal FiglakRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nicolau vs. Perez · 2024-04
L · Sub · R2
Kurt HolobaughRating 2.8Submission
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