UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa
Adelaide, Australia
1 Dec 2018
Welterweight
VS
76%
Matthews
24%
Martin
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 1:19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Matthews
Matthews is a strong favourite at 76% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 38 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Matthews has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Matthews's chin rating of 24 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Martin has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Matthews
Martin
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
73"
Reach
73"
31+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Matthews
Martin
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
55.4
17.5
48.3
Performance Avg
45.3
37
Quality of Victory
35
100
Momentum Score
65
Matthews
Martin
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
46%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
1
1
Body
1
0
Leg
2
RangeRange
1Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Matthews
Martin
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Matthews
Martin
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
24
68
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
4
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/30 fights
Chin rating based on
15/23 fights
Matthews
Martin
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
65
Upcoming
L · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Matthews
Martin
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
47%
44%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
6
Submission Wins
3
8
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Matthews
Martin
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
4.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.3
5.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
MatthewsMartin
Strike Zones
Matthews
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedMartin
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Matthews targets the body (100% of attacks) — Martin absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Martin targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Matthews absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Matthews
RND
Martin
0/0R00/0
Matthews · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Martin · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Matthews · Last 5
Upcoming
Muslim SalikhovUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Sub · R3
Neil MagnyRating 4.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Sub · R1
Chidi NjokuaniRating 6.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Phil RoweRating 5.6Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06
Martin · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Neil MagnyRating 6.1Decision
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
W · Dec · R3
Ramazan EmeevRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Zabit vs. Kattar · 2019-11
L · Dec · R3
Demian MaiaRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Ngannou vs. Dos Santos · 2019-06
W · Dec · R3
Sergio MoraesRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Dos Santos · 2019-03
W · Sub · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Tuivasa · 2018-12