UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis
Norfolk, USA
11 Nov 2017
Lightweight
VS
91%
Northcutt
9%
Quinones
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
SN
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11 – 2
6'0"71" reachOrthodox30 yrs3-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 21
MQ
Michel Quinones
"El Capo"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide41 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Northcutt

Northcutt is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 19 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Northcutt has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 40 points.

Northcutt has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Northcutt
Quinones
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
30+
Age
41
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Northcutt
Quinones
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
21.3
2.1
54.0
Performance Avg
0.0
40
Quality of Victory
0
89
Momentum Score
0
Northcutt
Quinones
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
0.5
59%
Strike Accuracy
16%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
5
6
Body
2
10
Leg
2
RangeRange
28Distance9
2Clinch0
0Ground0
Northcutt
Quinones
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.7
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Northcutt
Quinones
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
2
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/13 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
Northcutt
Quinones
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
89
0
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Northcutt
Quinones
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
2
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Northcutt
Quinones
Striking4.8 / 0.0Volume5.5 / 0.0Grappling2.5 / 0.0Wrestling1.8 / 0.0Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
5.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Northcutt
Strike Zones
Quinones
Northcutt
Attacking
14HEAD6BODY10LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 absorbed
Quinones
Attacking
5HEAD2BODY2LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD6BODY10LEGS30 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Northcutt targets the head (47% of attacks) — Quinones absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Quinones targets the head (56% of attacks) — Northcutt absorbs 56% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Northcutt
RND
Quinones
0/0R00/0

Northcutt · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.0W5.2W3.2L4.5W3.3L4.5W4.5W5.2W2015-102016-012016-122018-022018-07
WinLossTrend

Quinones · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0103.1L5.5L2017-062017-11
WinLossTrend

Northcutt · Last 5

W · KO · R2
Zak OttowRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Santos vs. Ivanov · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Thibault GoutiRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cerrone vs. Medeiros · 2018-02
W · Dec · R3
Michel QuinonesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · Sub · R2
Mickey GallRating 3.3
Submission
UFC on FOX: VanZant vs. Waterson · 2016-12
W · Dec · R3
Enrique MarinRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes · 2016-07

Quinones · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Sage NorthcuttRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Pettis · 2017-11
L · KO · R2
Jared GordonRating 3.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Chiesa vs. Lee · 2017-06

News & Media

Sage Northcutt · Michel Quinones
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