UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis
Seattle, USA
26 Mar 2011
Welterweight
VS
60%
Johnson
40%
Hardy
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AJ
Anthony Johnson
"Rumble"
22 – 6
6'2"78" reachOrthodox42 yrsKnockout Artist
CFR 23
DH
Dan Hardy
"The Outlaw"
25 – 10
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak44 yrsOrthodox74" reach6'0"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Johnson

Johnson holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Hardy has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 8 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Johnson has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

Johnson has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Johnson's chin rating of 18 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Hardy has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Johnson
Hardy
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
6'0"
78"+
Reach
74"
42+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Johnson
Hardy
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
23.1
15.4
60.4
Performance Avg
46.0
55
Quality of Victory
37
100
Momentum Score
38
Johnson
Hardy
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
0.9
50%
Strike Accuracy
34%
9.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.5
11 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
0
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
4Clinch0
3Ground0
Johnson
Hardy
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
0.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.6
0.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Johnson
Hardy
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
18
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
5
Sub Losses
1
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
15 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/28 fights
Chin rating based on
10/35 fights
Johnson
Hardy
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
38
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Johnson
Hardy
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
85%
33%
11
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Johnson
Hardy
Striking9.8 / 4.5Volume2.6 / 6.5Grappling0.4 / 1.6Wrestling0.3 / 1.1Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 4.1
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.5
0.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.6
0.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.1
2.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
Johnson
Strike Zones
Hardy
Johnson
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Hardy
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY2LEGS7 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Johnson targets the head (71% of attacks) — Hardy absorbs 71% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Johnson
RND
Hardy
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Johnson · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W2.8L5.0W4.0L5.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L4.5W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.0W5.4W2.1L2007-062009-022012-012015-092017-04
WinLossTrend

Hardy · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0104.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L1.5L5.5L4.0L5.0W4.5W2008-102009-112011-032012-09
WinLossTrend

Johnson · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Daniel CormierRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 210: Cormier vs. Johnson 2 · 2017-04
W · KO · R1
Glover TeixeiraRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
W · KO · R1
Ryan BaderRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
W · KO · R2
Jimi ManuwaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2 · 2015-09
L · Sub · R3
Daniel CormierRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier · 2015-05

Hardy · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Amir SadollahRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FUEL TV: Struve vs Miocic · 2012-09
W · KO · R1
Duane LudwigRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir · 2012-05
L · Sub · R3
Chris LytleRating 4
Submission
UFC Live: Hardy vs Lytle · 2011-08
L · Dec · R3
Anthony JohnsonRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Nogueira vs Davis · 2011-03
L · KO · R1
Carlos ConditRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 120: Bisping vs Akiyama · 2010-10

News & Media

Anthony Johnson · Dan Hardy
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