UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer
Seattle, USA
28 Mar 2026
Welterweight
VS
51%
Chiesa
49%
Price
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 1:03
Michael
Michael Chiesa
"Maverick"
20 – 7
6'1"75" reachSouthpaw38 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Niko
Niko Price
"The Hybrid"
16 – 11
Well-Rounded4-fight slide36 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'0"
CFR 48

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Chiesa

This is a genuine toss-up — Chiesa at 51% vs Price at 49% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Price has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Chiesa's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Price has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Chiesa
Price
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
6'0"
75"
Reach
+76"
38
Age
+36
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Chiesa
Price
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
50.7
48.4
53.3
Performance Avg
46.0
43
Quality of Victory
49
50
Momentum Score
65
Chiesa
Price
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
2.6
41%
Strike Accuracy
46%
1.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Chiesa
Price
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
5.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
4.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Chiesa
Price
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
5
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.6 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/27 fights
Chin rating based on
21/27 fights
Chiesa
Price
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
50
65
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Chiesa
Price
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
75%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
9
Submission Wins
2
6
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Chiesa
Price
Striking1.4 / 5.8Volume4.6 / 2.8Grappling5.8 / 2.6Wrestling4.0 / 1.8Submission6.0 / 2.5Pressure6.3 / 6.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.8
5.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
4.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
6.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.5
6.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.5
4.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
Chiesa
Strike Zones
Price
Chiesa
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Price
Attacking
0HEAD1BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Price targets the body (100% of attacks) — Chiesa absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Chiesa
RND
Price
0/0R00/0

Chiesa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.2W2.8L5.2W4.5W4.8L4.5W5.7W6.2W1.5L2.8L5.2W4.5W4.7W5.1W3.0L6.6L2.1L5.5W6.1W4.7W5.7W2012-062015-042019-072024-082026-03
WinLossTrend

Price · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W4.2L5.2W6.1W3.0L5.1W3.8L5.0W7.0L6.1L4.5W5.1L1.8L4.5W5.9L5.1L1.9L2.3L2016-122018-092021-072024-102026-03
WinLossTrend

Chiesa · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
W · Dec · R3
Court McGeeRating 4.7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Usman vs. Buckley · 2025-06
W · Sub · R3
Max GriffinRating 6.1
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Sub · R1
Tony FergusonRating 5.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Sub · R1
Kevin HollandRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 291: Poirier vs. Gaethje 2 · 2023-07

Price · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Michael ChiesaRating 2.3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · 2026-03
L · KO · R1
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Sub · R2
Jacobe SmithRating 5.1
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Themba GorimboRating 5.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Alex MoronoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · 2024-06

News & Media

Michael Chiesa · Niko Price
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