UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
26 Oct 2024
Welterweight
VS
57%
Fakhretdinov
43%
Leal
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Rinat
Rinat Fakhretdinov
"Gladiator"
24 – 1
6'0"74" reachOrthodox34 yrs6-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 68
Carlos
Carlos Leal
"The Lion"
23 – 7
Well-Rounded32 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 51

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Fakhretdinov

This is a genuine toss-up — Fakhretdinov at 57% vs Leal at 43% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Leal throws more volume but Fakhretdinov connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Fakhretdinov
Leal
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
67.7
50.9
61.4
Performance Avg
45.5
36
Quality of Victory
43
100
Momentum Score
60
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
5.0
55%
Strike Accuracy
50%
3.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
41
Head
28
7
Body
8
4
Leg
6
RangeRange
41Distance35
11Clinch7
0Ground0
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.9
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
100
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/25 fights
Chin rating based on
4/30 fights
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
60
6-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Fakhretdinov
Leal
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fakhretdinov
Leal
Striking3.7 / 6.0Volume7.3 / 5.0Grappling2.9 / 1.2Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission1.7 / 0.0Pressure5.3 / 5.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.0
2.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
1.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.3
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.0
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.0
Fakhretdinov
Strike Zones
Leal
Fakhretdinov
Attacking
41HEAD7BODY4LEGS52 landed
Absorbing
28HEAD8BODY6LEGS42 absorbed
Leal
Attacking
28HEAD8BODY6LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
41HEAD7BODY4LEGS52 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fakhretdinov targets the head (79% of attacks) — Leal absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Leal targets the head (67% of attacks) — Fakhretdinov absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fakhretdinov
RND
Leal
0/0R00/0

Fakhretdinov · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.2
0104.5W6.3W5.0W4.8W5.3W5.2W2022-062022-122023-072024-062024-102025-09
WinLossTrend

Leal · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0107.1L5.0W2.5L5.6W2024-102025-032025-072026-02
WinLossTrend

Fakhretdinov · Last 5

W · KO · R1
Andreas GustafssonRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Carlos LealRating 5.3
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10
W · Dec · R3
Nicolas DalbyRating 4.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · 2024-06
Upcoming
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · 2023-11
W · Sub · R1
Kevin LeeRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Magomedov · 2023-07

Leal · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniRating 5.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · 2026-02
L · KO · R1
Muslim SalikhovRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. De Ridder · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Rinat FakhretdinovRating 7.1
Decision
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · 2024-10

News & Media

Rinat Fakhretdinov · Carlos Leal
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