METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Featherweight
VS
37%
Andrade
63%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
★ Official Result
Javier ReyeswinsKO/TKOR1 · 4:59
def. Douglas Silva de Andrade · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Reyes
→
Actual result
Reyes wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Reyes holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Andrade has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 27 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Risk flags
Andrade's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
AndradeReyes
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Andrade
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+73"
41
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
—
Andrade
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.4
65.0
42.2
Performance Avg
56.0
37
Quality of Victory
60
28
Momentum Score
71
Andrade
Reyes
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.9
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
4.5
Style: Pressure
8.5
5.6
Style: Volume
1.0
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
1 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
42
2
Body
4
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground37
Andrade
Reyes
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.5
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
1.4
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Andrade
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/36 fights
Chin rating based on
2/28 fights
Andrade
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Andrade
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Andrade
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
AndradeReyes
Strike Zones
Andrade
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedReyes
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Andrade targets the head (47% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (91% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Andrade
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Andrade · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Javier ReyesKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsDecision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannDecision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovDecision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Sergey MorozovSubmission
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
Reyes · Last 2
L · Sub · R1
Kaan OfliSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Torres · 2026-06
W · KO · R1
Douglas Silva de AndradeKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02