UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh
Mexico City, Mexico
28 Feb 2026
Featherweight
VS
32%
Andrade
68%
Reyes
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:59
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Reyes
Reyes holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Andrade has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Reyes has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 23 points.
Reyes has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Andrade's chin rating of 36 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Andrade
Reyes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"
Reach
+73"
40
Age
+32
Orthodox
Stance
—
Andrade
Reyes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
38.4
82.8
42.2
Performance Avg
76.0
37
Quality of Victory
60
28
Momentum Score
100
Andrade
Reyes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
18.4
39%
Strike Accuracy
61%
3.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
42
2
Body
4
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
17Distance9
0Clinch0
0Ground37
Andrade
Reyes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
1.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Andrade
Reyes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
36
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/36 fights
Chin rating based on
1/28 fights
Andrade
Reyes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
100
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
W · KO · R1
Andrade
Reyes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
43%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Andrade
Reyes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
1.4
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
10.0
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.0
AndradeReyes
Strike Zones
Andrade
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
46 absorbedReyes
Attacking
46 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Andrade targets the head (47% of attacks) — Reyes absorbs 47% of strikes there
🎯Reyes targets the head (91% of attacks) — Andrade absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Andrade
RND
Reyes
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Andrade · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Andrade · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Javier ReyesRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Miles JohnsRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Perez vs. Taira · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Cody StamannRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · 2023-05
L · Dec · R3
Said NurmagomedovRating 6.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · 2022-07
W · Sub · R2
Sergey MorozovRating 5.2Submission
UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · 2022-02
Reyes · Last 1
W · KO · R1
Douglas Silva de AndradeRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02