UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song
Seattle, USA
22 Feb 2025
Catch Weight
VS
42%
Veretennikov
58%
Vanderford
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:13
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Vanderford
This is a genuine toss-up — Veretennikov at 42% vs Vanderford at 58% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 17 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Vanderford has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 13 points.
Vanderford has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Veretennikov's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'11"
74"
Reach
74"
36
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
60.5
38.8
Performance Avg
53.0
43
Quality of Victory
55
51
Momentum Score
59
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
2.1
59%
Strike Accuracy
71%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
30
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance1
0Clinch0
0Ground30
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.2
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
0.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
88
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/22 fights
Chin rating based on
2/16 fights
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
51
59
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R2
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Veretennikov
Vanderford
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.5
4.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.0
VeretennikovVanderford
Strike Zones
Veretennikov
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
31 absorbedVanderford
Attacking
31 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Veretennikov targets the body (50% of attacks) — Vanderford absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Vanderford targets the head (97% of attacks) — Veretennikov absorbs 97% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Veretennikov
RND
Vanderford
0/0R00/0
Veretennikov · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Vanderford · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Veretennikov · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Khaos WilliamsRating 2.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R1
Niko PriceRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bautista vs. Oliveira · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Punahele SorianoRating 6.5Decision
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Francisco PradoRating 5.2Decision
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
L · KO · R2
Austin VanderfordRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02
Vanderford · Last 2
L · Sub · R2
Ramiz BrahimajRating 4.3Submission
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R2
Nikolay VeretennikovRating 5.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Cejudo vs. Song · 2025-02