METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Welterweight
VS
50%
Luque
50%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vicente Luque · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Luque
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 50% vs Alvarez at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Risk flags
Luque's chin rating of 32 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 62 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
LuqueAlvarez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Luque
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+77"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
59.9
59.3
56.1
Performance Avg
57.2
50
Quality of Victory
51
79
Momentum Score
59
Luque
Alvarez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.4
/ 10
6.3
/ 10
7.7
Style: Pressure
8.1
2.3
Style: Volume
2.3
7 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Luque
Alvarez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.6
/ 10
3.3
/ 10
2.5
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
4.1
Submission Style (/10)
3.8
7
Submission wins
3
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Luque
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
32
62
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
6 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/36 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Luque
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
79
59
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
Luque
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
88%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Luque
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.1
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
LuqueAlvarez
Strike Zones
Luque
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
3 landedAbsorbing
3 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (67% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Luque
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
Luque · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Tresean GoreDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumSubmission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandSubmission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboSubmission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
Alvarez · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Chidi NjokuaniDecision
UFC 330: Makhachev vs. Machado Garry · 2026-08
L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovSubmission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueDecision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08