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All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
11 Oct 2025
Welterweight
VS
52%
Luque
48%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Vicente
Vicente Luque
"The Silent Assassin"
24 – 12
5'11"75" reachOrthodox34 yrsPressure Fighter
CFR 65
Joel
Joel Alvarez
"El Fenomeno"
23 – 4
Pressure Fighter33 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'3"
CFR 61
★ Official Result
Joel AlvarezwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Vicente Luque · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Luque
→
Actual result
Alvarez wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Luque at 52% vs Alvarez at 48% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Alvarez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Luque's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
LuqueAlvarez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Luque
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'3"
75"
Reach
+77"
34
Age
+33
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Luque
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.9
60.9
57.2
Performance Avg
59.7
50
Quality of Victory
51
100
Momentum Score
59
Luque
Alvarez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.0
2.1
53%
Strike Accuracy
57%
5.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.5
7 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
1
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance3
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Luque
Alvarez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
2.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Luque
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
64
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
2
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
25/36 fights
Chin rating based on
11/27 fights
Luque
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
59
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
Luque
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
82%
88%
7
KO / TKO Wins
4
7
Submission Wins
3
3
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Luque
Alvarez
Striking5.5 / 6.5Volume2.3 / 2.5Grappling3.6 / 3.3Wrestling2.5 / 2.3Submission4.1 / 3.8Pressure7.8 / 8.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.5
3.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
2.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
4.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.8
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.3
2.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.5
Luque
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Luque
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD1BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Luque targets the head (67% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (67% of attacks) — Luque absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Luque
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0

Luque · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.0W5.2W5.0W6.1W6.6L5.9W5.0W6.2W5.9W5.0W4.5W6.1L5.2W6.1W5.0W5.8W6.6L5.0L4.7W3.9L5.4W3.4L6.8L5.3W2015-072018-052020-082024-122026-04
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.5L5.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.4L5.4W6.3W6.0W6.0W5.0L2019-022020-102023-072025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Luque · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Kelvin GastelumRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 327: Prochazka vs. Ulberg · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Joel AlvarezRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · Sub · R2
Kevin HollandRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 316: Dvalishvili vs. O'Malley 2 · 2025-06
W · Sub · R1
Themba GorimboRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · KO · R2
Joaquin BuckleyRating 3.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · 2024-03

Alvarez · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Yaroslav AmosovRating 5
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Vicente LuqueRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Drakkar KloseRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
W · KO · R3
Elves BrenerRating 6.3
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
W · Sub · R2
Marc DiakieseRating 5.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07

News & Media

Vicente Luque · Joel Alvarez
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