UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
Los Angeles, USA
28 Feb 2015
Welterweight
VS
48%
Ellenberger
52%
Koscheck
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 4:20
JE
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31 – 15
5'9"71" reachOrthodox41 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 16
JK
Josh Koscheck
17 – 11
Well-Rounded5-fight slide48 yrsOrthodox73" reach5'10"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Koscheck

This is a genuine toss-up — Ellenberger at 48% vs Koscheck at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Ellenberger has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Ellenberger's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Koscheck has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Ellenberger
Koscheck
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"
Height
+5'10"
71"
Reach
+73"
41+
Age
48
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
15.7
16.9
45.7
Performance Avg
50.5
45
Quality of Victory
44
56
Momentum Score
59
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
0.9
42%
Strike Accuracy
39%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.2
5 KOs
KO Finishes
6 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.2
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.6
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
4 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
7
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
3
Avg R1.6 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
21/46 fights
Chin rating based on
25/28 fights
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
56
59
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Ellenberger
Koscheck
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
60%
60%
5
KO / TKO Wins
6
1
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
6

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Ellenberger
Koscheck
Striking6.0 / 5.2Volume3.4 / 4.4Grappling1.5 / 2.6Wrestling1.1 / 1.8Submission1.0 / 2.0Pressure5.6 / 6.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.2
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
1.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
5.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.0
3.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.4
Ellenberger
Strike Zones
Koscheck
Ellenberger
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Koscheck
Attacking
4HEAD0BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Ellenberger targets the head (100% of attacks) — Koscheck absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Koscheck targets the head (100% of attacks) — Ellenberger absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Ellenberger
RND
Koscheck
0/0R00/0

Ellenberger · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0105.5L5.2W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.0W4.5W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.5L4.3L1.8L5.2W2.1L5.5L5.4W1.5L2.8L1.5L1.9L2009-092012-022014-112017-042018-08
WinLossTrend

Koscheck · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.3
0105.0W5.0W4.0L5.0W4.5W5.0W4.5W4.5W5.5L5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W1.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5L1.8L1.5L2.8L1.5L2005-042007-042009-092013-022015-03
WinLossTrend

Ellenberger · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bryan BarberenaRating 1.9
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
L · KO · R1
Ben SaundersRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rivera vs. Moraes · 2018-06
L · KO · R2
Mike PerryRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs. Lobov · 2017-04
L · KO · R1
Jorge MasvidalRating 1.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Tournament of Champions Finale · 2016-12
W · KO · R1
Matt BrownRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley · 2016-07

Koscheck · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Erick SilvaRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Jake EllenbergerRating 2.8
Submission
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano · 2015-02
L · KO · R1
Tyron WoodleyRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks · 2013-11
L · KO · R1
Robbie LawlerRating 1.8
KO/TKO
UFC 157: Rousey vs Carmouche · 2013-02
L · Dec · R3
Johny HendricksRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Diaz vs Miller · 2012-05

News & Media

Jake Ellenberger · Josh Koscheck
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