UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans
Las Vegas, USA
29 May 2010
Lightweight
VS
83%
Riley
17%
Brammer
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
AR
Aaron Riley
30 – 14
5'8"69" reachSouthpaw45 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 11
Joe
Joe Brammer
"The South Side Strangler"
7 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox5'8"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Riley

Riley is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Riley has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Riley has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Riley's chin rating of 68 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Riley
Brammer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
5'8"
69"
Reach
45
Age
+42
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Riley
Brammer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.4
2.4
28.3
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
45
Momentum Score
0
Riley
Brammer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.3
0.6
32%
Strike Accuracy
24%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
6
4
Body
1
3
Leg
1
RangeRange
7Distance7
7Clinch1
3Ground0
Riley
Brammer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Riley
Brammer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
68
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/44 fights
Chin rating based on
2/10 fights
Riley
Brammer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Riley
Brammer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Riley
Brammer
Striking0.7 / 0.0Volume8.7 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure1.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
1.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Riley
Strike Zones
Brammer
Riley
Attacking
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 absorbed
Brammer
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY1LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD4BODY3LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Riley targets the head (59% of attacks) — Brammer absorbs 59% of strikes there
🎯Brammer targets the head (75% of attacks) — Riley absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Riley
RND
Brammer
0/0R00/0

Riley · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0105.8L4.0L4.5W1.5L4.5W4.8L4.5W4.5L5.5L2002-052009-032010-052013-07
WinLossTrend

Brammer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L5.5L2009-122010-05
WinLossTrend

Riley · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Justin SalasRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga · 2013-07
L · R1
Tony FergusonRating 4.5
UFC 135: Jones vs Rampage · 2011-09
W · Dec · R3
Joe BrammerRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · R2
Ross PearsonRating 4.8
UFC 105: Couture vs Vera · 2009-11
W · Dec · R3
Shane NelsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 101: Declaration · 2009-08

Brammer · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Aaron RileyRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 114: Rampage vs Evans · 2010-05
L · Sub · R1
Mark BocekRating 1.5
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Heavyweights Finale · 2009-12

News & Media

Aaron Riley · Joe Brammer
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