UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2008
Lightweight
VS
47%
Griffin
53%
Aurelio
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
TG
Tyson Griffin
16 – 8
5'6"68" reachOrthodox42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 16
MA
Marcus Aurelio
"Maximus"
22 – 10
Pressure Fighter3-fight slide52 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'10"
CFR 18

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aurelio

This is a genuine toss-up — Griffin at 47% vs Aurelio at 53% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Griffin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Griffin's chin rating of 48 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Griffin
Aurelio
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'10"
68"
Reach
+74"
42+
Age
52
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Griffin
Aurelio
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
16.4
18.4
42.3
Performance Avg
47.5
32
Quality of Victory
57
75
Momentum Score
33
Griffin
Aurelio
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
34%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
5
10
Body
1
7
Leg
0
RangeRange
36Distance5
2Clinch1
2Ground0
Griffin
Aurelio
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
4.0
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Griffin
Aurelio
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
48
92
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/24 fights
Chin rating based on
6/32 fights
Griffin
Aurelio
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
75
33
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Griffin
Aurelio
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
1
Submission Wins
1
6
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Griffin
Aurelio
Striking2.4 / 5.7Volume7.1 / 0.7Grappling2.8 / 4.0Wrestling2.0 / 2.8Submission1.3 / 5.0Pressure3.5 / 8.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
4.0
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.8
1.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
3.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.0
7.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.7
Griffin
Strike Zones
Aurelio
Griffin
Attacking
23HEAD10BODY7LEGS40 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Aurelio
Attacking
5HEAD1BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD10BODY7LEGS40 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Griffin targets the head (57% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 57% of strikes there
🎯Aurelio targets the head (83% of attacks) — Griffin absorbs 83% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Griffin
RND
Aurelio
0/0R00/0

Griffin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0105.0W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.5L4.7W5.2W5.5L1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L2006-092008-022009-092011-062011-10
WinLossTrend

Aurelio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2007-082007-112008-042008-072008-102009-08
WinLossTrend

Griffin · Last 5

L · KO · R1
Bart PalaszewskiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 137: Penn vs Diaz · 2011-10
W · Dec · R3
Manvel GamburyanRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Live: Kongo vs Barry · 2011-06
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 123: Rampage vs Machida · 2010-11
L · KO · R1
Takanori GomiRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Live: Jones vs Matyushenko · 2010-08
L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin · 2010-06

Aurelio · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Hermes FrancaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R1
Ryan RobertsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Luke CaudilloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

News & Media

Tyson Griffin · Marcus Aurelio
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