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UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Bantamweight
VS
54%
Vera
46%
Munhoz
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Marlon
Marlon Vera
"Chito"
23 – 12
5'8"70" reachSwitch33 yrs4-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Pedro
Pedro Munhoz
"The Young Punisher"
20 – 10
Well-Rounded3-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox65" reach5'6"
CFR 44
★ Official Result
Marlon VerawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Pedro Munhoz · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Vera
→
Actual result
Vera wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Vera at 54% vs Munhoz at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Striking split: Munhoz throws more volume but Vera connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
VeraMunhoz
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Vera
Munhoz
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'6"
70"+
Reach
65"
33+
Age
39
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Vera
Munhoz
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.4
44.0
50.4
Performance Avg
46.2
46
Quality of Victory
44
39
Momentum Score
43
Vera
Munhoz
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.7
2.0
51%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.0
7 KOs
KO Finishes
3 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
45
Head
16
4
Body
5
4
Leg
9
RangeRange
51Distance28
2Clinch2
0Ground0
Vera
Munhoz
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.4
1.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Vera
Munhoz
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
80
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
26/35 fights
Chin rating based on
22/30 fights
Vera
Munhoz
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
39
43
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Vera
Munhoz
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
60%
7
KO / TKO Wins
3
4
Submission Wins
3
4
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Vera
Munhoz
Striking5.8 / 4.0Volume3.3 / 4.2Grappling2.8 / 3.4Wrestling1.9 / 2.4Submission2.7 / 3.0Pressure6.9 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.0
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.4
1.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
2.7
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.0
6.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
3.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.2
Vera
Strike Zones
Munhoz
Vera
Attacking
45HEAD4BODY4LEGS53 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD5BODY9LEGS30 absorbed
Munhoz
Attacking
16HEAD5BODY9LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
45HEAD4BODY4LEGS53 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Vera targets the head (85% of attacks) — Munhoz absorbs 85% of strikes there
🎯Munhoz targets the head (53% of attacks) — Vera absorbs 53% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Vera
RND
Munhoz
0/0R00/0

Vera · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.8
0105.5L5.2W6.3L4.5W5.5W5.3W5.5L5.7L5.2W5.2W5.0W5.2W5.5W6.8L6.5W6.0L5.3W5.5W5.7W5.4W7.0L5.0W7.0L6.6L6.6L7.2L2014-112018-022020-082023-082026-02
WinLossTrend

Munhoz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.5
0105.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.2W4.5W6.2W5.5L4.5W5.0W6.1W6.5L5.5L4.5W6.0L5.5L5.0W6.3L6.2L6.6L2014-022017-052019-032021-122024-11
WinLossTrend

Vera · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
David MartinezRating 7.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · Dec · R3
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · Dec · R5
Sean O'MalleyRating 7
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
W · Dec · R3
Pedro MunhozRating 5
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08

Munhoz · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Aiemann ZahabiRating 6.6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
Kyler PhillipsRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · 2024-03
L · Dec · R3
Marlon VeraRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
W · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Allen · 2023-04
Upcoming
Sean O'Malley
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

News & Media

Marlon Vera · Pedro Munhoz
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