UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith
Hamburg, Germany
22 Jul 2018
Light Heavyweight
VS
38%
Rua
62%
Smith
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:29
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Smith
Smith holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Rua has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Smith throws more volume but Rua connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Rua's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Smith has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rua
Smith
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'4"
76"
Reach
76"
44
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rua
Smith
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.0
58.3
49.7
Performance Avg
50.7
51
Quality of Victory
50
46
Momentum Score
100
Rua
Smith
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.3
55%
Strike Accuracy
52%
8.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.9
8 KOs
KO Finishes
5 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
21
1
Body
0
3
Leg
2
RangeRange
4Distance23
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Rua
Smith
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
0.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.5
0.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rua
Smith
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
0
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
6
KO/TKO Losses
6
2
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.8 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
24/41 fights
Chin rating based on
25/60 fights
Rua
Smith
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
46
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Upcoming
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · KO · R3
Rua
Smith
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
73%
77%
8
KO / TKO Wins
5
0
Submission Wins
5
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rua
Smith
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
8.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.9
0.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.5
0.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
3.9
6.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.9
3.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.3
RuaSmith
Strike Zones
Rua
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedSmith
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rua targets the legs (75% of attacks) — Smith absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Smith targets the head (91% of attacks) — Rua absorbs 91% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rua
RND
Smith
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Rua · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.4WinLossTrend
Smith · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Rua · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Ihor PotieriaRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · 2023-01
L · Dec · R3
Ovince Saint PreuxRating 6.1Decision
UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · 2022-05
L · KO · R2
Paul CraigRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · 2020-11
W · Dec · R3
Rogerio NogueiraRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Till · 2020-07
Upcoming
Paul CraigDecision
UFC Fight Night: Blachowicz vs. Jacare · 2019-11
Smith · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Zhang MingyangRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · KO · R2
Dominick ReyesRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
L · Dec · R3
Roman DolidzeRating 6.9Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Sub · R1
Vitor PetrinoRating 6.1Submission
UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · 2024-05
L · KO · R3
Khalil Rountree Jr.Rating 4.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Song vs. Gutierrez · 2023-12