UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa
Las Vegas, USA
16 May 2026
Light Heavyweight
VS
65%
Tokkos
35%
Erslan
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tuco
Tuco Tokkos
11 – 6
6'4"76" reachOrthodox35 yrsSubmission Hunter
CFR 49
Ivan
Ivan Erslan
15 – 6
Well-Rounded34 yrsOrthodox72" reach6'2"
CFR 26

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Tokkos

Tokkos holds a meaningful edge at 65% per the CFR ratings — but Erslan has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Tokkos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Erslan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Tokkos
Erslan
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"+
Height
6'2"
76"+
Reach
72"
35
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Tokkos
Erslan
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
49.2
26.3
39.7
Performance Avg
25.0
50
Quality of Victory
25
43
Momentum Score
17
Tokkos
Erslan
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
0.6
39%
Strike Accuracy
49%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
5
2
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance4
0Clinch0
0Ground1
Tokkos
Erslan
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
8.0
/ 10
2.4
/ 10
5.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.7
10.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Tokkos
Erslan
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
84
84
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
4/21 fights
Tokkos
Erslan
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
17
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Last 5
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Tokkos
Erslan
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Tokkos
Erslan
Striking0.5 / 0.5Volume0.5 / 8.5Grappling8.0 / 2.4Wrestling5.6 / 1.7Submission10.0 / 0.0Pressure7.8 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
0.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Tokkos
Strike Zones
Erslan
Tokkos
Attacking
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Erslan
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD2BODY0LEGS4 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Tokkos targets the head (50% of attacks) — Erslan absorbs 50% of strikes there
🎯Erslan targets the head (100% of attacks) — Tokkos absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Tokkos
RND
Erslan
0/0R00/0

Tokkos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0102.5L7.0L6.1W5.5L2024-052024-122025-072026-05
WinLossTrend

Erslan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.8L7.0L3.0L5.2W2024-092025-052025-092026-05
WinLossTrend

Tokkos · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
Ivan ErslanRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · Sub · R2
Junior TafaRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Teixeira · 2025-07
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Buckley · 2024-12
L · Sub · R1
Oumar SyRating 2.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Erslan · Last 4

W · Dec · R3
Tuco TokkosRating 5.2
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Jimmy CruteRating 3
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
L · Dec · R3
Navajo StirlingRating 7
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
L · Dec · R3
Ion CutelabaRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Moicano vs. Saint Denis · 2024-09

News & Media

Tuco Tokkos · Ivan Erslan
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