METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Chicago, USA
25 Jul 2015
Lightweight
VS
72%
Miller
28%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Jim MillerwinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Danny Castillo · UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Miller
→
Actual result
Miller wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Miller is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Risk flags
Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MillerCastillo
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Miller
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
43+
Age
47
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
17.2
51.5
Performance Avg
40.6
45
Quality of Victory
34
28
Momentum Score
89
Miller
Castillo
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
3.4
/ 10
3.9
/ 10
6.8
Style: Pressure
3.5
3.5
Style: Volume
6.7
6 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
2 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
2
Body
3
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance15
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Castillo
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
4.7
/ 10
1.7
/ 10
3.3
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.2
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
14
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Miller
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Miller
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
89
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Miller
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
29%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
14
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Miller
Castillo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
MillerCastillo
Strike Zones
Miller
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
15 absorbedCastillo
Attacking
15 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (56% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Miller
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0
Miller · Last 5
W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonSubmission
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L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperDecision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonSubmission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenDecision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezSubmission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01
Castillo · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzDecision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerDecision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderKO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonDecision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanKO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04