UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II
Chicago, USA
25 Jul 2015
Lightweight
VS
72%
Miller
28%
Castillo
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Jim
Jim Miller
"A-10"
39 – 19
5'8"71" reachSouthpaw42 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 44
DC
Danny Castillo
"Last Call"
17 – 10
Well-Rounded4-fight slide46 yrsOrthodox71" reach5'9"
CFR 17

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Miller

Miller is a strong favourite at 72% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 26 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Miller has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.

Striking split: Miller throws more volume but Castillo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Miller's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Castillo has a chin rating of 46 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Miller
Castillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
42+
Age
46
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Miller
Castillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
43.5
17.2
51.5
Performance Avg
40.6
45
Quality of Victory
34
28
Momentum Score
89
Miller
Castillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
41%
Strike Accuracy
44%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
3.9
6 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
10
Head
10
2
Body
3
6
Leg
2
RangeRange
17Distance15
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Miller
Castillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.7
3.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.2
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Miller
Castillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
46
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
3
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
18 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
47/58 fights
Chin rating based on
14/27 fights
Miller
Castillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
28
89
Current form
4-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Miller
Castillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
29%
6
KO / TKO Wins
2
14
Submission Wins
0
8
Decision Wins
5

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Miller
Castillo
Striking3.4 / 3.9Volume3.5 / 6.7Grappling4.7 / 1.7Wrestling3.3 / 1.2Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure6.8 / 3.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
3.9
4.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.7
3.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.2
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.5
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
Miller
Strike Zones
Castillo
Miller
Attacking
10HEAD2BODY6LEGS18 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD3BODY2LEGS15 absorbed
Castillo
Attacking
10HEAD3BODY2LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
10HEAD2BODY6LEGS18 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Miller targets the head (56% of attacks) — Castillo absorbs 56% of strikes there
🎯Castillo targets the head (67% of attacks) — Miller absorbs 67% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Miller
RND
Castillo
0/0R00/0

Miller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.0W4.5W4.5W6.4W5.5W5.5L5.0W2.1L4.5W5.0W5.0W2.1L6.5L4.5W3.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W6.8L5.5L5.5L2.4L5.0W2.9L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.2W5.7L6.2L5.2W5.9W5.2W6.4L5.0W5.7W6.2L5.3W6.3L5.4W2008-102012-052017-022021-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Castillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0104.5W5.5L5.0W4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W4.6W6.0L5.2W6.0L2.8L5.9L5.5L2011-032012-052013-122015-072015-12
WinLossTrend

Miller · Last 5

W · Sub · R1
Jared GordonRating 5.4
Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Chase HooperRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
W · Sub · R1
Damon JacksonRating 5.3
Submission
UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · 2024-11
L · Dec · R3
King GreenRating 6.2
Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
W · Sub · R3
Gabriel BenitezRating 5.7
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · 2024-01

Castillo · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Nik LentzRating 5.5
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowboy 2 · 2015-12
L · Dec · R3
Jim MillerRating 5.9
Decision
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao II · 2015-07
L · KO · R2
Paul FelderRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC 182: Jones vs Cormier · 2015-01
L · Dec · R3
Tony FergusonRating 6
Decision
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08
W · KO · R2
Charlie BrennemanRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira · 2014-04

News & Media

Jim Miller · Danny Castillo
← Back to fights