UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum
Las Vegas, USA
17 Apr 2021
Middleweight
VS
18%
Fabinski
82%
Meerschaert
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 2:00
BF
Bartosz Fabinski
"The Butcher"
15 – 5
6'0"75" reachOrthodox40 yrs3-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 13
Gerald
Gerald Meerschaert
"GM3"
37 – 22
Submission Hunter5-fight slide38 yrsSouthpaw77" reach6'1"
CFR 57

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Meerschaert

Meerschaert is a strong favourite at 82% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 44 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Meerschaert has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Meerschaert throws more volume but Fabinski connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Fabinski's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Meerschaert has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Fabinski
Meerschaert
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'1"
75"
Reach
+77"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.6
56.7
35.0
Performance Avg
48.2
25
Quality of Victory
50
45
Momentum Score
91
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.2
70%
Strike Accuracy
45%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
1.8
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
7
4
Body
1
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance5
4Clinch3
0Ground0
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
7.3
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
5.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
0
Never stopped
Verdict
2 consec. KOs
0
KO/TKO Losses
5
3
Sub Losses
3
—
KO round context
Avg R1.2 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/20 fights
Chin rating based on
26/59 fights
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
91
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Fabinski
Meerschaert
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
100%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
11
3
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Fabinski
Meerschaert
Striking1.0 / 1.8Volume9.0 / 0.9Grappling2.4 / 7.3Wrestling1.7 / 5.1Submission0.0 / 9.2Pressure1.5 / 8.4
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
1.8
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
7.3
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
5.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
9.2
1.5
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.4
9.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.9
Fabinski
Strike Zones
Meerschaert
Fabinski
Attacking
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 absorbed
Meerschaert
Attacking
7HEAD1BODY0LEGS8 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD4BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Fabinski targets the body (67% of attacks) — Meerschaert absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Meerschaert targets the head (88% of attacks) — Fabinski absorbs 88% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Fabinski
RND
Meerschaert
0/0R00/0

Fabinski · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.3
0104.5W4.5W4.5W1.5L2.4L2.6L2015-042015-112018-072018-112020-092021-04
WinLossTrend

Meerschaert · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.0W5.0W2.8L5.2W5.2W2.4L6.1L5.7W6.3L5.5W1.5L3.4L5.0W6.3W5.5W5.5L6.8W3.5L6.0L5.7W6.7W5.0L5.5L2.5L2.1L6.5L2016-122019-082021-122024-112026-05
WinLossTrend

Fabinski · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Gerald MeerschaertRating 2.6
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · 2021-04
L · Sub · R1
Andre MunizRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Sakai · 2020-09
L · Sub · R1
Michel PrazeresRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Emil MeekRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs. Smith · 2018-07
W · Dec · R3
Hector UrbinaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gastelum · 2015-11

Meerschaert · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jacob MalkounRating 6.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
L · Sub · R1
Kyle DaukausRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · KO · R1
Michal OleksiejczukRating 2.5
KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Murphy · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Reinier de RidderRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11

News & Media

Bartosz Fabinski · Gerald Meerschaert
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