UFC 84: Ill Will
Las Vegas, USA
24 May 2008
Heavyweight
VS
62%
Carwin
38%
Wellisch
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 0:44
SC
Shane Carwin
"The Engineer"
12 – 2
6'2"80" reachOrthodox51 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 25
CW
Christian Wellisch
"The Hungarian Nightmare"
8 – 5
Well-Rounded2-fight slide50 yrsOrthodox77" reach6'2"
CFR 15

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Carwin

Carwin holds a meaningful edge at 62% per the CFR ratings — but Wellisch has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Carwin has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 31 points.

Carwin has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Wellisch has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Carwin
Wellisch
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"
Height
6'2"
80"+
Reach
77"
51
Age
+50
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carwin
Wellisch
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
25.1
15.3
68.7
Performance Avg
39.7
70
Quality of Victory
40
65
Momentum Score
51
Carwin
Wellisch
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
1.4
54%
Strike Accuracy
26%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.8
4 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
2
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
3Distance2
0Clinch0
2Ground0
Carwin
Wellisch
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.0
/ 10
5.2
/ 10
0.0
Wrestling Style (/10)
3.6
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
5.0
0
Submission wins
1
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Carwin
Wellisch
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
86
54
Never stopped
Verdict
KO risk
0
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
5/13 fights
Carwin
Wellisch
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
65
51
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Carwin
Wellisch
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
50%
4
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Carwin
Wellisch
Striking10.0 / 0.8Volume1.3 / 4.8Grappling0.0 / 5.2Wrestling0.0 / 3.6Submission0.0 / 5.0Pressure9.0 / 4.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.8
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
5.2
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
3.6
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
5.0
9.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
1.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
Carwin
Strike Zones
Wellisch
Carwin
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 absorbed
Wellisch
Attacking
2HEAD0BODY0LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Carwin targets the head (100% of attacks) — Wellisch absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Wellisch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Carwin absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Carwin
RND
Wellisch
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Carwin · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.0W5.0W5.0W2.1L5.5L2008-052008-102009-032010-032010-072011-06
WinLossTrend

Wellisch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.6
0101.5L4.5W5.0W1.5L5.5L2006-082006-122007-092008-052009-01
WinLossTrend

Carwin · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Junior Dos SantosRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 131: Dos Santos vs Carwin · 2011-06
L · Sub · R2
Brock LesnarRating 2.1
Submission
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin · 2010-07
W · KO · R1
Frank MirRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 111: St-Pierre vs Hardy · 2010-03
W · KO · R1
Gabriel GonzagaRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 96: Jackson vs Jardine · 2009-03
W · KO · R1
Neil WainRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 89: Bisping vs Leben · 2008-10

Wellisch · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake O'BrienRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 94: St-Pierre vs Penn 2 · 2009-01
L · KO · R1
Shane CarwinRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 84: Ill Will · 2008-05
W · Sub · R1
Scott JunkRating 5
Submission
UFC 76: Knockout · 2007-09
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PeroshRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 66: Liddell vs Ortiz 2 · 2006-12
L · KO · R1
Cheick KongoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 62: Liddell vs Sobral · 2006-08

News & Media

Shane Carwin · Christian Wellisch
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