UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida
Las Vegas, USA
5 Jul 2014
Middleweight
VS
80%
Casey
20%
Bush
Win Probability
KC
Kevin Casey
"King"
9 – 5
5'11"77" reachSouthpaw44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 9
BB
Bubba Bush
"The Fightin' Texas Aggie"
8 – 3
Well-Rounded40 yrsOrthodox6'0"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Casey

Casey is a strong favourite at 80% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

Casey has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Casey throws more volume but Bush connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Casey's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Casey
Bush
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"
Height
+6'0"
77"
Reach
44
Age
+40
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Casey
Bush
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.0
2.2
25.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Casey
Bush
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.2
51%
Strike Accuracy
60%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
1
1
Body
0
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance2
0Clinch0
13Ground0
Casey
Bush
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Casey
Bush
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
78
KO risk
Verdict
Moderate
3
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
7/14 fights
Chin rating based on
2/11 fights
Casey
Bush
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
Casey
Bush
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Casey
Bush
Striking0.5 / 0.0Volume8.5 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Casey
Strike Zones
Bush
Casey
Attacking
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 absorbed
Bush
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY1LEGS2 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD1BODY0LEGS15 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Casey targets the head (93% of attacks) — Bush absorbs 93% of strikes there
🎯Bush targets the head (50% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Casey
RND
Bush
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Casey · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0102.8L4.5W4.0L2.8L2013-042015-072016-012016-08
WinLossTrend

Casey · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Maia vs. Condit · 2016-08
Upcoming
Elvis Mutapcic
Decision
UFC 199: Rockhold vs. Bisping 2 · 2016-06
L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader · 2016-01
Upcoming
Antonio Carlos Junior
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee · 2015-07

Bush · Last 2

L · KO · R3
Garreth McLellanRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smolka · 2015-10
Upcoming
Kevin Casey
UFC 175: Weidman vs Machida · 2014-07

News & Media

Kevin Casey · Bubba Bush
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