METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Middleweight
VS
27%
Branch
73%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
★ Official Result
David BranchwinsKO/TKOR1 · 2:30
def. Thiago Santos · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Santos
→
Actual result
Branch wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Santos is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Branch's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Santos has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
BranchSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Branch
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
78"+
Reach
76"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Branch
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.9
32.2
38.0
Performance Avg
54.0
34
Quality of Victory
51
36
Momentum Score
91
Branch
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.5
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
2
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
1Distance14
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Branch
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Branch
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/28 fights
Chin rating based on
24/33 fights
Branch
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Branch
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
79%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Branch
Santos
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
BranchSantos
Strike Zones
Branch
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
14 absorbedSantos
Attacking
14 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Branch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Branch absorbs 57% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Branch
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Branch · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.7WinLossTrend
Santos · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Branch · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 4.5Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
Santos · Last 5
L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11