UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee
Atlantic City, USA
21 Apr 2018
Middleweight
VS
27%
Branch
73%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 2:30
DB
David Branch
22 – 6
6'1"78" reachOrthodox44 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 12
TS
Thiago Santos
"Marreta"
22 – 11
Knockout Artist2-fight slide42 yrsOrthodox76" reach6'2"
CFR 32

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Santos

Santos is a strong favourite at 73% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Santos has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.

Santos has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Branch's chin rating of 10 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Santos has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Branch
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"
Height
+6'2"
78"+
Reach
76"
44
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Branch
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
11.9
32.2
38.0
Performance Avg
54.0
34
Quality of Victory
51
36
Momentum Score
91
Branch
Santos
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.5
1.6
38%
Strike Accuracy
51%
3.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
5
Head
4
0
Body
2
0
Leg
8
RangeRange
1Distance14
0Clinch0
4Ground0
Branch
Santos
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
1.3
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.4
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Branch
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
10
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
3
2
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/28 fights
Chin rating based on
24/33 fights
Branch
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
36
91
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R4
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
Branch
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
79%
1
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Branch
Santos
Striking3.4 / 9.0Volume6.9 / 2.9Grappling1.8 / 0.5Wrestling1.3 / 0.4Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure3.1 / 7.3
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.0
1.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
1.3
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.4
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
3.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
6.9
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
Branch
Strike Zones
Santos
Branch
Attacking
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 landed
Absorbing
4HEAD2BODY8LEGS14 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
4HEAD2BODY8LEGS14 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD0BODY0LEGS5 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Branch targets the head (100% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the legs (57% of attacks) — Branch absorbs 57% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Branch
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Branch · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.7
0104.0L4.5W4.5W2.8L4.5W2.1L5.0W3.7L2.4L2010-072011-032018-042019-03
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0101.5L5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W4.5W5.0W1.5L1.5L5.2W6.3W5.9W6.4W1.5L5.1W6.0W5.2W5.8W7.3L3.1L5.6L5.3W7.0L4.6L2013-082016-052018-022019-072022-08
WinLossTrend

Branch · Last 5

L · Sub · R1
Jack HermanssonRating 2.4
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Gaethje · 2019-03
L · KO · R2
Jared CannonierRating 3.7
KO/TKO
UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · 2018-11
W · KO · R1
Thiago SantosRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Lee · 2018-04
L · KO · R2
Luke RockholdRating 2.1
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs. Branch · 2017-09
W · Dec · R3
Krzysztof JotkoRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R4
Jamahal HillRating 4.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Hill · 2022-08
L · Dec · R5
Magomed AnkalaevRating 7
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · 2022-03
W · Dec · R5
Johnny WalkerRating 5.3
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · 2021-10
L · Dec · R3
Aleksandar RakicRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 259: Blachowicz vs. Adesanya · 2021-03
L · Sub · R3
Glover TeixeiraRating 3.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Teixeira · 2020-11

News & Media

David Branch · Thiago Santos
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