UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Stephens
Mexico City, Mexico
21 Sept 2019
Featherweight
VS
60%
Rodriguez
40%
Stephens
Win Probability
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Rodriguez
Rodriguez holds a meaningful edge at 60% per the CFR ratings — but Stephens has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 21 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Rodriguez has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Rodriguez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Rodriguez's chin rating of 62 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Stephens has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Rodriguez
Stephens
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'9"
71"
Reach
71"
33+
Age
40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Rodriguez
Stephens
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
66.4
45.0
60.2
Performance Avg
41.1
51
Quality of Victory
40
100
Momentum Score
76
Rodriguez
Stephens
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.5
1.3
48%
Strike Accuracy
42%
5.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.5
4 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
0
Body
0
2
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Rodriguez
Stephens
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.1
1.4
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Rodriguez
Stephens
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
62
0
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
1
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.3 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
16/27 fights
Chin rating based on
36/52 fights
Rodriguez
Stephens
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
76
Current form
7-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
W · Sub · R2
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Rodriguez
Stephens
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
46%
47%
4
KO / TKO Wins
7
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
8
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Rodriguez
Stephens
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.5
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.1
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.9
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.4
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.5
5.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.6
RodriguezStephens
Strike Zones
Rodriguez
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedStephens
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Rodriguez targets the legs (100% of attacks) — Stephens absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Rodriguez
RND
Stephens
0/0R00/0
Rodriguez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Stephens · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Rodriguez · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Patricio PitbullRating 4.5Decision
UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · 2025-04
L · Sub · R3
Brian OrtegaRating 4.1Submission
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · 2024-02
L · KO · R3
Alexander VolkanovskiRating 4.2KO/TKO
UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · 2023-07
W · Sub · R2
Josh EmmettRating 5.2Submission
UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · 2023-02
W · KO · R1
Brian OrtegaRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · 2022-07
Stephens · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
King GreenRating 2.2Submission
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Mason JonesRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Sub · R1
Mateusz GamrotRating 2.6Submission
UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Moises · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Calvin KattarRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · Dec · R3
Yair RodriguezRating 7.1Decision
UFC Fight Night: Reyes vs. Weidman · 2019-10