UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley
Boston, USA
19 Aug 2023
Lightweight
VS
50%
Holobaugh
50%
Hubbard
Win Probability
Submission
Round 2 · 2:39
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Holobaugh
This is a genuine toss-up — Holobaugh at 50% vs Hubbard at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Holobaugh has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 12 points.
Striking split: Hubbard throws more volume but Holobaugh connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Holobaugh's chin rating of 46 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Hubbard has a chin rating of 64 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
70"
Reach
+71"
39
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
32.1
31.7
31.2
Performance Avg
28.7
37
Quality of Victory
26
20
Momentum Score
41
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
1.6
47%
Strike Accuracy
46%
0.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.7
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
20
Head
9
4
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
20Distance11
2Clinch2
2Ground0
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
5.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.8
3.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
46
64
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
2
Sub Losses
2
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
7 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/32 fights
Chin rating based on
12/27 fights
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
41
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
4
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Holobaugh
Hubbard
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.7
5.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.8
3.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.3
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
1.0
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
HolobaughHubbard
Strike Zones
Holobaugh
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedHubbard
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Holobaugh targets the head (83% of attacks) — Hubbard absorbs 83% of strikes there
🎯Hubbard targets the head (69% of attacks) — Holobaugh absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Holobaugh
RND
Hubbard
0/0R00/0
Holobaugh · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Hubbard · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Holobaugh · Last 5
L · Sub · R1
Jordan LeavittRating 3Submission
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UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08
Hubbard · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
RongzhuRating 6Decision
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UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · 2023-08