UFC Fight Night: Thompson vs. Neal
Las Vegas, USA
19 Dec 2020
Flyweight
VS
54%
Flick
46%
Durden
Win Probability
Submission
Round 1 · 3:18
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Flick
This is a genuine toss-up — Flick at 54% vs Durden at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Flick has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Durden throws more volume but Flick connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Flick's chin rating of 52 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Durden has a chin rating of 4 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Flick
Durden
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'7"
Height
5'7"
68"+
Reach
67"
35
Age
35
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Flick
Durden
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
44.7
37.8
44.4
Performance Avg
38.8
52
Quality of Victory
34
20
Momentum Score
54
Flick
Durden
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.7
1.0
53%
Strike Accuracy
45%
0.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.4
0 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
4
Head
17
0
Body
3
2
Leg
1
RangeRange
6Distance17
0Clinch2
0Ground2
Flick
Durden
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.3
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
8.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.9
5.6
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Flick
Durden
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
52
4
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
2
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
4
Avg R1.5 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
3 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/26 fights
Chin rating based on
17/28 fights
Flick
Durden
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
54
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R2
Flick
Durden
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
29%
0
KO / TKO Wins
1
2
Submission Wins
1
0
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Flick
Durden
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.4
8.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.9
5.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.0
10.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
1.4
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
3.4
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.7
FlickDurden
Strike Zones
Flick
Attacking
6 landedAbsorbing
21 absorbedDurden
Attacking
21 landedAbsorbing
6 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Flick targets the head (67% of attacks) — Durden absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Durden targets the head (81% of attacks) — Flick absorbs 81% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Flick
RND
Durden
0/0R00/0
Flick · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Durden · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.7WinLossTrend
Flick · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matt SchnellRating 5.7Decision
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Durden · Last 5
Upcoming
Ode OsbourneUFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
W · Dec · R3
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L · Sub · R2
Allan NascimentoRating 4.3Submission
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L · KO · R2
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