METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Mar 2015
Lightweight
VS
77%
Mafra
23%
Carrizosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Leonardo MafrawinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Cain Carrizosa · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Mafra
→
Actual result
Mafra wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
Mafra is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
Mafra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Mafra has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Mafra's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MafraCarrizosa
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Mafra
Carrizosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mafra
Carrizosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.1
2.4
25.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
17
Momentum Score
0
Mafra
Carrizosa
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
1.4
0.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
6
3
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance7
1Clinch0
17Ground0
Mafra
Carrizosa
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mafra
Carrizosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Mafra
Carrizosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Mafra
Carrizosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Mafra
Carrizosa
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
MafraCarrizosa
Strike Zones
Mafra
Attacking
23 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedCarrizosa
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
23 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Mafra targets the head (74% of attacks) — Carrizosa absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Carrizosa targets the head (86% of attacks) — Mafra absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Mafra
RND
Carrizosa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Mafra · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.2WinLossTrend
Carrizosa · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Mafra · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Cain CarrizosaRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Rick StoryRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · KO · R3
Thiago PerpetuoRating 4KO/TKO
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · 2012-06
Carrizosa · Last 2
L · Dec · R3
Leonardo MafraRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris WadeRating 1.5Submission
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08