UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
21 Mar 2015
Lightweight
VS
77%
Mafra
23%
Carrizosa
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
LM
Leonardo Mafra
"Macarrao"
13 – 4
5'10"70" reachOrthodox37 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 8
CC
Cain Carrizosa
"The Insane"
10 – 3
Well-Rounded2-fight slide39 yrsOrthodox5'8"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Mafra

Mafra is a strong favourite at 77% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

Mafra has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Mafra has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Mafra's chin rating of 44 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Mafra
Carrizosa
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
70"
Reach
37+
Age
39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Mafra
Carrizosa
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
8.1
2.4
25.0
Performance Avg
0.0
25
Quality of Victory
0
17
Momentum Score
0
Mafra
Carrizosa
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.4
0.4
55%
Strike Accuracy
47%
0.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
17
Head
6
3
Body
1
3
Leg
0
RangeRange
5Distance7
1Clinch0
17Ground0
Mafra
Carrizosa
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.4
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Mafra
Carrizosa
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
44
86
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/17 fights
Chin rating based on
2/13 fights
Mafra
Carrizosa
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
17
0
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
Mafra
Carrizosa
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Mafra
Carrizosa
Striking0.5 / 0.0Volume8.5 / 0.0Grappling2.4 / 0.0Wrestling1.7 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure0.8 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
8.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Mafra
Strike Zones
Carrizosa
Mafra
Attacking
17HEAD3BODY3LEGS23 landed
Absorbing
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 absorbed
Carrizosa
Attacking
6HEAD1BODY0LEGS7 landed
Absorbing
17HEAD3BODY3LEGS23 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Mafra targets the head (74% of attacks) — Carrizosa absorbs 74% of strikes there
🎯Carrizosa targets the head (86% of attacks) — Mafra absorbs 86% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Mafra
RND
Carrizosa
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Mafra · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.2
0104.0L2.8L4.5W1.5L2012-062014-072015-032015-07
WinLossTrend

Carrizosa · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0101.5L5.5L2014-082015-03
WinLossTrend

Mafra · Last 4

L · KO · R1
Stevie RayRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Leites · 2015-07
W · Dec · R3
Cain CarrizosaRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R2
Rick StoryRating 2.8
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Miller · 2014-07
L · KO · R3
Thiago PerpetuoRating 4
KO/TKO
UFC 147: Silva vs Franklin 2 · 2012-06

Carrizosa · Last 2

L · Dec · R3
Leonardo MafraRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare · 2015-03
L · Sub · R1
Chris WadeRating 1.5
Submission
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto · 2014-08

News & Media

Leonardo Mafra · Cain Carrizosa
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