Ian Machado Garry vs Carlos Prates — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates

Kansas City, USA

26 Apr 2025

Welterweight

45%

Garry

55%

Prates

Win Probability

Decision

Round 5 · 5:00

Ian Machado Garry

"The Future"

17 – 1

6'3"74" reachOrthodox28 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded

CFR 65

Carlos Prates

"The Nightmare"

24 – 7

Knockout Artist3-fight win streak32 yrsSwitch78" reach6'1"

CFR 80

★ Official Result

Ian Machado GarrywinsDecisionR5 · 5:00

def. Carlos Prates · UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Prates

→

Actual result

Garry wins

Decision · R5

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Garry at 45% vs Prates at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Prates has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.

Striking split: Prates throws more volume but Garry connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

GarryPrates

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Garry

Prates

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'3"+

Height

6'1"

74"

Reach

+78"

28+

Age

Orthodox

Stance

Switch

Garry

Prates

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

64.8

79.6

57.1

Performance Avg

70.6

Quality of Victory

100

Momentum Score

100

Garry

Prates

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.0

2.7

59%

Strike Accuracy

58%

4.8

Striking Style Score (/10)

10.0

3 KOs

KO Finishes

7 KOs

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

26Distance9

2Clinch1

0Ground12

Garry

Prates

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

1.7

/ 10

0.0

/ 10

1.2

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.0

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Garry

Prates

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

Never stopped

Verdict

Never stopped

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

11/18 fights

Chin rating based on

8/31 fights

Garry

Prates

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

100

2-fight 🔥 win streak

Current form

3-fight 🔥 win streak

W · Dec · R3

W · Dec · R5

L · Dec · R5

W · Dec · R3

Last 5

W · KO · R3

W · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

L · Dec · R5

W · KO · R1

Garry

Prates

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

30%

100%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Garry

Prates

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

4.8

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

10.0

1.7

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

0.0

1.2

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.0

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

4.8

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

9.6

7.4

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

1.8

Garry

Strike Zones

Prates

Garry

Attacking

28 landed

Absorbing

22 absorbed

Prates

Attacking

22 landed

Absorbing

28 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Garry targets the head (79% of attacks) — Prates absorbs 79% of strikes there

🎯Prates targets the head (77% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 77% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Garry

RND

Prates

0/0R00/0

Garry · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.7

WinLossTrend

Prates · QOF Timeline

Avg: 6.2

WinLossTrend

Garry · Last 5

W · Dec · R3

Belal MuhammadRating 5.6

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11

W · Dec · R5

Carlos PratesRating 6.7

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04

L · Dec · R5

Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6

Decision

UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12

W · Dec · R3

Michael PageRating 5.3

Decision

UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06

W · Dec · R3

Geoff NealRating 5.5

Decision

UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02

Prates · Last 5

W · KO · R3

Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6.7

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05

W · KO · R2

Leon EdwardsRating 6.4

KO/TKO

UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11

W · KO · R1

Geoff NealRating 6

KO/TKO

UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08

L · Dec · R5

Ian Machado GarryRating 7

Decision

UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04

W · KO · R1

Neil MagnyRating 5.6

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11

News & Media

Ian Machado Garry · Carlos Prates

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