UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates
Kansas City, USA
26 Apr 2025
Welterweight
VS
45%
Garry
55%
Prates
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Prates
This is a genuine toss-up — Garry at 45% vs Prates at 55% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 15 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Prates has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Striking split: Prates throws more volume but Garry connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Garry
Prates
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
6'1"
74"
Reach
+78"
28+
Age
32
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Garry
Prates
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
64.8
79.6
57.1
Performance Avg
70.6
35
Quality of Victory
59
100
Momentum Score
100
Garry
Prates
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.0
2.7
59%
Strike Accuracy
58%
4.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
3 KOs
KO Finishes
7 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
22
Head
17
2
Body
5
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
26Distance9
2Clinch1
0Ground12
Garry
Prates
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
1.7
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
1.2
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Garry
Prates
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
98
98
Never stopped
Verdict
Never stopped
0
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
0
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
11/18 fights
Chin rating based on
8/31 fights
Garry
Prates
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 🔥 win streak
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R3
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R5
W · KO · R1
Garry
Prates
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
30%
100%
3
KO / TKO Wins
7
0
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Garry
Prates
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
4.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
9.6
7.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
1.8
GarryPrates
Strike Zones
Garry
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
22 absorbedPrates
Attacking
22 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Garry targets the head (79% of attacks) — Prates absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Prates targets the head (77% of attacks) — Garry absorbs 77% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Garry
RND
Prates
0/0R00/0
Garry · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.7WinLossTrend
Prates · QOF Timeline
Avg: 6.2WinLossTrend
Garry · Last 5
W · Dec · R3
Belal MuhammadRating 5.6Decision
UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · 2025-11
W · Dec · R5
Carlos PratesRating 6.7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R5
Shavkat RakhmonovRating 7.6Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Michael PageRating 5.3Decision
UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Geoff NealRating 5.5Decision
UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · 2024-02
Prates · Last 5
W · KO · R3
Jack Della MaddalenaRating 6.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
Leon EdwardsRating 6.4KO/TKO
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
W · KO · R1
Geoff NealRating 6KO/TKO
UFC 319: Du Plessis vs. Chimaev · 2025-08
L · Dec · R5
Ian Machado GarryRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
W · KO · R1
Neil MagnyRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · 2024-11