UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant
Las Vegas, USA
10 Dec 2015
Middleweight
VS
68%
Junior
32%
Casey
Win Probability
AC
Antonio Carlos Junior
"Cara de Sapato"
11 – 5
6'2"79" reachOrthodox36 yrs3-fight slideSubmission Hunter
CFR 19
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Junior
Junior holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Casey has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 10 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Junior has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 28 points.
Casey has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Casey has a chin rating of 34 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Junior
Casey
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'2"+
Height
5'11"
79"+
Reach
77"
36+
Age
44
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Junior
Casey
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
19.1
9.0
55.3
Performance Avg
25.0
53
Quality of Victory
25
41
Momentum Score
33
Junior
Casey
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
0.6
1.0
43%
Strike Accuracy
51%
1.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
0
Head
0
1
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
1Distance0
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Junior
Casey
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
6.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
4.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Junior
Casey
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
70
34
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
3
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.3 stoppage
8 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
13/16 fights
Chin rating based on
7/14 fights
Junior
Casey
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
41
33
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
Upcoming
L · KO · R3
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
Junior
Casey
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
71%
0%
0
KO / TKO Wins
0
5
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Junior
Casey
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
6.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
4.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
7.1
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
3.5
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
JuniorCasey
Strike Zones
Junior
Attacking
1 landedAbsorbing
0 absorbedCasey
Attacking
0 landedAbsorbing
1 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Junior targets the body (100% of attacks) — Casey absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Junior
RND
Casey
0/0R00/0
Junior · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Casey · QOF Timeline
Avg: 3.5WinLossTrend
Junior · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Brad TavaresRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Uriah HallRating 5.5Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Ian HeinischRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Lee · 2019-05
W · Sub · R1
Tim BoetschRating 5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · Sub · R1
Jack MarshmanRating 5Submission
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Casey · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Sam AlveyRating 2.8KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Elvis MutapcicDecision
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L · KO · R3
Rafael NatalRating 4KO/TKO
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Upcoming
Antonio Carlos JuniorUFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. VanZant · 2015-12
W · Dec · R3
Ildemar AlcantaraRating 4.5Decision
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