UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
Fairfax, USA
4 Apr 2015
Lightweight
VS
58%
Masvidal
42%
Iaquinta
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Masvidal
This is a genuine toss-up — Masvidal at 58% vs Iaquinta at 42% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Iaquinta throws more volume but Masvidal connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Masvidal's chin rating of 60 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Iaquinta has a chin rating of 48 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'11"+
Height
5'10"
74"+
Reach
70"
41
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.2
25.8
47.0
Performance Avg
47.0
42
Quality of Victory
38
43
Momentum Score
51
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.6
49%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.6
5 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
28
Head
11
4
Body
2
2
Leg
13
RangeRange
34Distance25
0Clinch1
0Ground0
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
1.7
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.3
1.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.9
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
60
48
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
22/52 fights
Chin rating based on
15/21 fights
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
51
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
W · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R5
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
44%
5
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
0
6
Decision Wins
5
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Masvidal
Iaquinta
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.6
1.7
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.3
1.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.9
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.9
4.4
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
MasvidalIaquinta
Strike Zones
Masvidal
Attacking
34 landedAbsorbing
26 absorbedIaquinta
Attacking
26 landedAbsorbing
34 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Masvidal targets the head (82% of attacks) — Iaquinta absorbs 82% of strikes there
🎯Iaquinta targets the legs (50% of attacks) — Masvidal absorbs 50% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Masvidal
RND
Iaquinta
0/0R00/0
Masvidal · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.2WinLossTrend
Iaquinta · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Masvidal · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Gilbert BurnsRating 5.7Decision
UFC 287: Pereira vs. Adesanya 2 · 2023-04
L · Dec · R5
Colby CovingtonRating 6.8Decision
UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · 2022-03
L · KO · R2
Kamaru UsmanRating 3.2KO/TKO
UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · 2021-04
L · Dec · R5
Kamaru UsmanRating 6.6Decision
UFC 251: Usman vs. Masvidal · 2020-07
W · R3
Nate DiazRating 4.3UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
Iaquinta · Last 5
L · KO · R1
King GreenRating 2.2KO/TKO
UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · 2021-11
L · Dec · R3
Dan HookerRating 6.4Decision
UFC 243: Whittaker vs. Adesanya · 2019-10
L · Dec · R5
Donald CerroneRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Iaquinta vs. Cowboy · 2019-05
W · Dec · R5
Kevin LeeRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lee vs. Iaquinta · 2018-12
L · Dec · R5
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 5.5Decision
UFC 223: Khabib vs. Iaquinta · 2018-04