UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
Anaheim, USA
23 Oct 2010
Welterweight
VS
48%
Sanchez
52%
Thiago
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DS
Diego Sanchez
"Nightmare"
31 – 13
5'10"72" reachSouthpaw44 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 13
PT
Paulo Thiago
18 – 9
Well-Rounded3-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox74" reach5'11"
CFR 14

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Thiago

This is a genuine toss-up — Sanchez at 48% vs Thiago at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Sanchez has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Sanchez's chin rating of 14 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Thiago has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Sanchez
Thiago
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"
Height
+5'11"
72"
Reach
+74"
44+
Age
45
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Sanchez
Thiago
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
12.7
13.5
46.0
Performance Avg
37.5
37
Quality of Victory
37
20
Momentum Score
39
Sanchez
Thiago
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.7
39%
Strike Accuracy
35%
4.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
6 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
21
Head
1
5
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
0Distance0
0Clinch1
26Ground0
Sanchez
Thiago
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.0
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
1.5
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.0
1.1
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.1
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Sanchez
Thiago
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
14
44
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
32/44 fights
Chin rating based on
13/27 fights
Sanchez
Thiago
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
20
39
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
W · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Sanchez
Thiago
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
32%
40%
6
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
1
13
Decision Wins
3

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Sanchez
Thiago
Striking4.3 / 2.8Volume6.2 / 5.6Grappling1.5 / 3.0Wrestling1.1 / 2.1Submission0.0 / 2.0Pressure4.0 / 4.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.0
1.1
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.1
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
4.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.0
6.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.6
Sanchez
Strike Zones
Thiago
Sanchez
Attacking
21HEAD5BODY0LEGS26 landed
Absorbing
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 absorbed
Thiago
Attacking
1HEAD0BODY0LEGS1 landed
Absorbing
21HEAD5BODY0LEGS26 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Sanchez targets the head (81% of attacks) — Thiago absorbs 81% of strikes there
🎯Thiago targets the head (100% of attacks) — Sanchez absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Sanchez
RND
Thiago
0/0R00/0

Sanchez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.8
0105.0W5.2W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.0W5.5W4.5W5.0W5.5L5.5L4.5W4.5W5.5L4.5W5.5L5.5L4.5W5.5L4.9W1.5L4.5W1.5L1.9L4.5W5.8W6.3L5.1W6.5L2005-042008-032012-022016-112020-09
WinLossTrend

Thiago · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.0W5.5L4.5W5.2W5.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L4.5W1.5L5.5L5.5L2009-022010-062012-112014-09
WinLossTrend

Sanchez · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Jake MatthewsRating 6.5
Decision
UFC 253: Adesanya vs. Costa · 2020-09
W · R3
Michel PereiraRating 5.1
UFC Fight Night: Anderson vs. Blachowicz · 2020-02
L · Dec · R3
Michael ChiesaRating 6.3
Decision
UFC 239: Jones vs. Santos · 2019-07
W · KO · R2
Mickey GallRating 5.8
KO/TKO
UFC 235: Jones vs. Smith · 2019-03
W · Dec · R3
Craig WhiteRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 228: Woodley vs. Till · 2018-09

Thiago · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Sean SpencerRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Gasan UmalatovRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Maldonado · 2014-05
L · KO · R1
Brandon ThatchRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Henderson 2 · 2013-11
W · Dec · R3
Michel PrazeresRating 4.5
Decision
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold · 2013-05
L · Dec · R3
Dong Hyun KimRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Macao: Franklin vs Le · 2012-11

News & Media

Diego Sanchez · Paulo Thiago
← Back to fights