UFC on FOX: Shevchenko vs. Pena
Denver, USA
28 Jan 2017
Bantamweight
VS
37%
Assuncao
63%
Sterling
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Sterling
Sterling holds a meaningful edge at 63% per the CFR ratings — but Assuncao has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 23 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Sterling has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Assuncao's chin rating of 6 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Sterling has a chin rating of 50 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Assuncao
Sterling
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
+5'7"
66"
Reach
+71"
43
Age
+36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Assuncao
Sterling
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
31.4
54.2
44.2
Performance Avg
54.2
32
Quality of Victory
38
61
Momentum Score
71
Assuncao
Sterling
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.4
43%
Strike Accuracy
52%
2.9
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
12
1
Body
3
8
Leg
3
RangeRange
12Distance18
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Assuncao
Sterling
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.5
/ 10
3.2
/ 10
1.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
2.3
0.8
Submission Style (/10)
2.2
1
Submission wins
4
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Assuncao
Sterling
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
6
50
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
3
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.7 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
2 fights ago
Last KO loss
4 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
19/38 fights
Chin rating based on
23/31 fights
Assuncao
Sterling
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
61
71
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · Dec · R5
W · Dec · R5
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
Assuncao
Sterling
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
25%
33%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
4
9
Decision Wins
12
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Assuncao
Sterling
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.9
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.7
2.5
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.2
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
0.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.2
3.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.7
7.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
6.5
AssuncaoSterling
Strike Zones
Assuncao
Attacking
12 landedAbsorbing
18 absorbedSterling
Attacking
18 landedAbsorbing
12 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Assuncao targets the legs (67% of attacks) — Sterling absorbs 67% of strikes there
🎯Sterling targets the head (67% of attacks) — Assuncao absorbs 67% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Assuncao
RND
Sterling
0/0R00/0
Assuncao · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Sterling · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Assuncao · Last 5
L · Sub · R3
Davey GrantRating 4.8Submission
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W · Dec · R3
Victor HenryRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · 2022-10
L · KO · R2
Ricky SimonRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · 2021-12
L · KO · R2
Cody GarbrandtRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · 2020-06
L · Dec · R3
Cory SandhagenRating 7Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
Sterling · Last 5
W · Dec · R5
Youssef ZalalRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · 2026-04
W · Dec · R5
Brian OrtegaRating 5.9Decision
UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · 2025-08
L · Dec · R3
Movsar EvloevRating 6.8Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · Dec · R3
Calvin KattarRating 5Decision
UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · 2024-04
L · KO · R2
Sean O'MalleyRating 3.6KO/TKO
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