UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
3 Aug 2024
Heavyweight
VS
54%
Gaziev
46%
Mayes
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gaziev
This is a genuine toss-up — Gaziev at 54% vs Mayes at 46% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 7 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Striking split: Gaziev throws more volume but Mayes connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Gaziev's chin rating of 34 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Mayes has a chin rating of 56 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Gaziev
Mayes
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'4"
Height
+6'6"
78"
Reach
+81"
36
Age
+34
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Gaziev
Mayes
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
48.3
41.2
48.0
Performance Avg
37.8
47
Quality of Victory
39
49
Momentum Score
43
Gaziev
Mayes
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
1.0
37%
Strike Accuracy
46%
7.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
2 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
2
Head
2
0
Body
2
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
2Distance5
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Gaziev
Mayes
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
0.8
/ 10
1.2
/ 10
0.6
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.8
0.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
0
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Gaziev
Mayes
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
34
56
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
Never stopped
3
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
3
Avg R2.3 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/17 fights
Chin rating based on
12/20 fights
Gaziev
Mayes
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
49
43
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
L · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R4
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Gaziev
Mayes
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
67%
50%
2
KO / TKO Wins
2
0
Submission Wins
0
1
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Gaziev
Mayes
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
7.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
0.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
0.6
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.2
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
4.6
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.7
GazievMayes
Strike Zones
Gaziev
Attacking
2 landedAbsorbing
5 absorbedMayes
Attacking
5 landedAbsorbing
2 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Gaziev targets the head (100% of attacks) — Mayes absorbs 100% of strikes there
🎯Mayes targets the head (40% of attacks) — Gaziev absorbs 40% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Gaziev
RND
Mayes
0/0R00/0
Gaziev · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.8WinLossTrend
Mayes · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.1WinLossTrend
Gaziev · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Brando PericicRating 5.1KO/TKO
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L · KO · R1
Waldo Cortes AcostaRating 3KO/TKO
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W · KO · R1
Thomas PetersenRating 5KO/TKO
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W · Dec · R3
Don'Tale MayesRating 4.8Decision
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Nurmagomedov · 2024-08
L · KO · R4
Jairzinho RozenstruikRating 4.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · 2024-03
Mayes · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Thomas PetersenRating 5.5Decision
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L · Sub · R1
Valter WalkerRating 3.4Submission
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L · Dec · R3
Shamil GazievRating 6.2Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Caio MachadoRating 4.5Decision
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Rodrigo NascimentoRating 5.8Decision
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