★ Championship Bout · Heavyweight
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane
Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates
25 Oct 2025
Heavyweight
VS
54%
Aspinall
46%
Gane
Win Probability
Tom
Tom Aspinall
153
6'5"78" reachOrthodox33 yrs3-fight win streakKnockout Artist
CFR 83
Ciryl
Ciryl Gane
"Bon Gamin"
132
Well-Rounded2-fight win streak36 yrsOrthodox81" reach6'4"
CFR 70

Combatrics Intelligence

AI-powered journalistic analysis · live news & data

Edge: Aspinall

The first undisputed heavyweight championship fight in three years pits the most physically dominant champion in the division's recent history against the most technically gifted challenger in the sport.

Tom Aspinall's rise to undisputed UFC heavyweight champion has been one of the more improbable and compelling stories in recent MMA history. Standing in front of him at the Etihad Arena in Abu Dhabi is the one man who can actually test him technically: Ciryl 'Bon Gamin' Gane. Gane was once the hottest thing in heavyweight MMA — a former interim champion, a man who had never been stopped before lo…

Aspinall intel

Aspinall is the reigning undisputed heavyweight champion riding a dominant run of form. His first-round pace is devastating and no opponent has survived it cleanly. His grappling on the ground is perhaps his most underappreciated asset — if the fight goes there, Gane faces genuine submission danger.

Gane intel

Gane's athleticism and technical boxing make him the one challenger best equipped to disrupt Aspinall's rhythm. He is experienced in multiple title fights and his composure under pressure is well-documented. His jab is the most effective tool against forward-pressing heavyweights and he knows it.

Key angles

Gane's jab and footwork — can he disrupt Aspinall's first-round pace and make it a fight?

Aspinall's takedown threat — even the hint of it will constrain Gane's striking

Championship rounds: if Gane survives the early storm, does this become his fight?

Aspinall's ability to cut off the cage against the most mobile heavyweight in the sport

Risk flags

Gane's movement and jab could keep Aspinall chasing for three rounds, creating a competitive fight

Aspinall has never been truly tested late — his durability in a grinding title fight is the one unknown

Aspinall
Gane
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'5"+
Height
6'4"
78"
Reach
+81"
33+
Age
36
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aspinall
Gane
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
83.0
70.0
77.7
Performance Avg
62.1
70
Quality of Victory
48
100
Momentum Score
100
Aspinall
Gane
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
4.7
1.9
69%
Strike Accuracy
63%
9.3
Striking Style Score (/10)
5.7
6 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
14
Head
8
5
Body
9
8
Leg
13
RangeRange
27Distance30
0Clinch0
0Ground0
Aspinall
Gane
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
2.0
/ 10
2.6
/ 10
1.4
Wrestling Style (/10)
1.8
2.5
Submission Style (/10)
2.0
2
Submission wins
2
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aspinall
Gane
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
86
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
1
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
4 fights ago
Last KO loss
Strikes absorbed / min
10/18 fights
Chin rating based on
14/15 fights
Aspinall
Gane
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
3-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Upcoming
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
L · KO · R1
Last 5
Upcoming
Upcoming
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
Aspinall
Gane
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
60%
6
KO / TKO Wins
4
2
Submission Wins
2
0
Decision Wins
4

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aspinall
Gane
Striking9.3 / 5.7Volume1.8 / 4.9Grappling2.0 / 2.6Wrestling1.4 / 1.8Submission2.5 / 2.0Pressure9.7 / 6.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
9.3
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
5.7
2.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.6
1.4
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.0
9.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.7
1.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.9
Aspinall
Strike Zones
Gane
Aspinall
Attacking
14HEAD5BODY8LEGS27 landed
Absorbing
8HEAD9BODY13LEGS30 absorbed
Gane
Attacking
8HEAD9BODY13LEGS30 landed
Absorbing
14HEAD5BODY8LEGS27 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aspinall targets the head (52% of attacks) — Gane absorbs 52% of strikes there
🎯Gane targets the legs (43% of attacks) — Aspinall absorbs 43% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aspinall
RND
Gane
0/0R00/0

Aspinall · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.0W5.0W6.0W5.5W6.3W2.4L5.4W6.2W5.9W2020-072021-092023-072024-07
WinLossTrend

Gane · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0105.0W5.8W5.1W5.2W5.6W5.8W6.5W5.9L5.7W3.3L5.6W5.8W2019-082020-122021-082023-032024-12
WinLossTrend

Aspinall · Last 5

Upcoming
Ciryl Gane
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 5.9
KO/TKO
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
W · KO · R1
Sergei PavlovichRating 6.2
KO/TKO
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · KO · R1
Marcin TyburaRating 5.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · 2023-07
L · KO · R1
Curtis BlaydesRating 2.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · 2022-07

Gane · Last 5

Upcoming
Alex Pereira
UFC Freedom 250 · 2026-06
Upcoming
Tom Aspinall
UFC 321: Aspinall vs. Gane · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
Alexander VolkovRating 5.8
Decision
UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · 2024-12
W · KO · R2
Serghei SpivacRating 5.6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Spivac · 2023-09
L · Sub · R1
Jon JonesRating 3.3
Submission
UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · 2023-03

News & Media

Tom Aspinall · Ciryl Gane
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