UFC 78: Validation
Newark, USA
17 Nov 2007
Lightweight
VS
90%
Aurelio
10%
Caudillo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 4:29
MA
Marcus Aurelio
"Maximus"
22 – 10
5'10"74" reachOrthodox52 yrs3-fight slidePressure Fighter
CFR 18
LC
Luke Caudillo
"Lil' Hulk"
17 – 17
Well-Rounded2-fight slide45 yrsOrthodox5'7"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aurelio

Aurelio is a strong favourite at 90% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aurelio has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 57 points.

Aurelio has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Aurelio
Caudillo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'7"
74"
Reach
52
Age
+45
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Aurelio
Caudillo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.4
2.1
47.5
Performance Avg
0.0
57
Quality of Victory
0
33
Momentum Score
0
Aurelio
Caudillo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
34%
Strike Accuracy
23%
5.7
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
15
Head
3
5
Body
3
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
4Distance2
4Clinch4
12Ground0
Aurelio
Caudillo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
4.0
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.8
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
5.0
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
1
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Aurelio
Caudillo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
92
76
Never stopped
Verdict
Moderate
0
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
—
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
—
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/32 fights
Chin rating based on
2/34 fights
Aurelio
Caudillo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
33
0
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R1
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Aurelio
Caudillo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
1
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aurelio
Caudillo
Striking5.7 / 0.0Volume0.7 / 0.0Grappling4.0 / 0.0Wrestling2.8 / 0.0Submission5.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.7
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
4.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
5.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Aurelio
Strike Zones
Caudillo
Aurelio
Attacking
15HEAD5BODY0LEGS20 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 absorbed
Caudillo
Attacking
3HEAD3BODY0LEGS6 landed
Absorbing
15HEAD5BODY0LEGS20 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aurelio targets the head (75% of attacks) — Caudillo absorbs 75% of strikes there
🎯Caudillo targets the head (50% of attacks) — Aurelio absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aurelio
RND
Caudillo
0/0R00/0

Aurelio · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.0L5.0W5.0W5.5L5.5L5.5L2007-082007-112008-042008-072008-102009-08
WinLossTrend

Caudillo · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.5
0105.5L1.5L2007-062007-11
WinLossTrend

Aurelio · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Evan DunhamRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 102: Couture vs Nogueira · 2009-08
L · Dec · R3
Hermes FrancaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 90: Silva vs Cote · 2008-10
L · Dec · R3
Tyson GriffinRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 86: Jackson vs Griffin · 2008-07
W · Sub · R1
Ryan RobertsRating 5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Florian vs Lauzon · 2008-04
W · KO · R1
Luke CaudilloRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11

Caudillo · Last 2

L · KO · R1
Marcus AurelioRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC 78: Validation · 2007-11
L · Dec · R3
Nate MohrRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Stout vs Fisher · 2007-06

News & Media

Marcus Aurelio · Luke Caudillo
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