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UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan
Las Vegas, USA
1 Oct 2022
Catch Weight
VS
48%
Castaneda
52%
Santos
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 4:28
John
John Castaneda
"Sexi Mexi"
21 – 8
5'6"71" reachSwitch34 yrs2-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 51
Daniel
Daniel Santos
"Willycat"
14 – 3
Well-Rounded31 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'7"
CFR 56
★ Official Result
Daniel SantoswinsKO/TKOR2 · 4:28
def. John Castaneda · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Santos
→
Actual result
Santos wins
KO/TKO · R2
Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Castaneda at 48% vs Santos at 52% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

Castaneda has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout
CastanedaSantos
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Castaneda
Santos
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'7"
71"+
Reach
67"
34
Age
+31
Switch
Stance
Orthodox
Castaneda
Santos
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
51.0
55.6
43.2
Performance Avg
50.7
39
Quality of Victory
40
71
Momentum Score
71
Castaneda
Santos
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.1
1.9
55%
Strike Accuracy
41%
3.5
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
37
5
Body
12
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
14Distance41
3Clinch8
0Ground1
Castaneda
Santos
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.2
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Castaneda
Santos
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
72
76
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
9/29 fights
Chin rating based on
6/17 fights
Castaneda
Santos
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
71
71
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Castaneda
Santos
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
50%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Castaneda
Santos
Striking3.5 / 6.3Volume5.0 / 5.3Grappling3.2 / 1.2Wrestling2.2 / 0.8Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.0 / 5.5
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.5
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.5
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.3
Castaneda
Strike Zones
Santos
Castaneda
Attacking
11HEAD5BODY1LEGS17 landed
Absorbing
37HEAD12BODY1LEGS50 absorbed
Santos
Attacking
37HEAD12BODY1LEGS50 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD5BODY1LEGS17 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Castaneda targets the head (65% of attacks) — Santos absorbs 65% of strikes there
🎯Santos targets the head (74% of attacks) — Castaneda absorbs 74% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Castaneda
RND
Santos
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Castaneda · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.4
0106.3L5.0W5.5W3.8L4.5W5.4W6.8L6.0L2020-072022-022023-062024-062025-04
WinLossTrend

Santos · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.6
0106.2L6.0W4.5W5.6W6.7W4.5L2022-042022-102023-062025-052025-102026-05
WinLossTrend

Castaneda · Last 5

Upcoming
Mark Vologdin
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Malott · 2026-04
L · Dec · R3
Chris GutierrezRating 6
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Machado Garry vs. Prates · 2025-04
L · Dec · R3
Daniel MarcosRating 6.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Imavov · 2024-06
W · Dec · R3
Kyung Ho KangRating 5.4
Decision
UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · 2023-11
W · Dec · R3
Muin GafurovRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06

Santos · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dooho ChoiRating 4.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa · 2026-05
W · KO · R2
JooSang YooRating 6.7
KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · Dec · R3
JeongYeong LeeRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · 2025-05
W · Dec · R3
Johnny MunozRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kara-France vs. Albazi · 2023-06
W · KO · R2
John CastanedaRating 6
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Yan · 2022-10

News & Media

John Castaneda · Daniel Santos
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