UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2
Sydney, Australia
8 Feb 2025
Lightweight
VS
59%
Nolan
41%
Borshchev
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Tom
Tom Nolan
"Big Train"
10 – 1
6'3"73" reachSouthpaw26 yrs4-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 65
Viacheslav
Viacheslav Borshchev
"Slava Claus"
8 – 7
Striker3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'11"
CFR 45

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Nolan

This is a genuine toss-up — Nolan at 59% vs Borshchev at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 20 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Nolan has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Borshchev has a chin rating of 68 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Nolan
Borshchev
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'3"+
Height
5'11"
73"+
Reach
69"
26+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Nolan
Borshchev
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
65.0
45.4
56.6
Performance Avg
41.3
41
Quality of Victory
47
100
Momentum Score
40
Nolan
Borshchev
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.2
1.8
48%
Strike Accuracy
48%
4.1
Striking Style Score (/10)
7.3
1 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
11
Head
5
3
Body
3
2
Leg
2
RangeRange
14Distance7
2Clinch0
0Ground3
Nolan
Borshchev
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
3.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.8
2.2
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.6
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Nolan
Borshchev
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
78
68
Moderate
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
5 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/11 fights
Chin rating based on
10/15 fights
Nolan
Borshchev
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
40
4-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
Upcoming
W · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R2
Nolan
Borshchev
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
67%
1
KO / TKO Wins
2
1
Submission Wins
0
2
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Nolan
Borshchev
Striking4.1 / 7.3Volume5.6 / 3.3Grappling3.2 / 0.8Wrestling2.2 / 0.6Submission2.5 / 0.0Pressure5.9 / 5.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
4.1
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
7.3
3.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.8
2.2
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.6
2.5
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
5.9
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.7
5.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.3
Nolan
Strike Zones
Borshchev
Nolan
Attacking
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 landed
Absorbing
5HEAD3BODY2LEGS10 absorbed
Borshchev
Attacking
5HEAD3BODY2LEGS10 landed
Absorbing
11HEAD3BODY2LEGS16 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Nolan targets the head (69% of attacks) — Borshchev absorbs 69% of strikes there
🎯Borshchev targets the head (50% of attacks) — Nolan absorbs 50% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Nolan
RND
Borshchev
0/0R00/0

Nolan · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.5
0102.1L5.0W4.5W5.0W6.1W2024-012024-052024-082025-022025-09
WinLossTrend

Borshchev · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.1
0105.0W5.6L6.6L5.5W3.5L4.5W7.0L3.0L5.6L2022-012023-052025-022025-11
WinLossTrend

Nolan · Last 5

Upcoming
Fares Ziam
UFC Fight Night: Muhammad vs. Bonfim · 2026-06
W · Sub · R1
Charlie CampbellRating 6.1
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Ulberg vs. Reyes · 2025-09
W · Dec · R3
Viacheslav BorshchevRating 5
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
Alex ReyesRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 305: Du Plessis vs. Adesanya · 2024-08
W · KO · R1
Victor MartinezRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · 2024-05

Borshchev · Last 5

L · Dec · R3
Matheus CamiloRating 5.6
Decision
UFC 322: Della Maddalena vs. Makhachev · 2025-11
L · Sub · R1
Terrance McKinneyRating 3
Submission
UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · 2025-06
L · Dec · R3
Tom NolanRating 7
Decision
UFC 312: Du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · 2025-02
W · Dec · R3
James LlontopRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
L · Sub · R2
Chase HooperRating 3.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05

News & Media

Tom Nolan · Viacheslav Borshchev
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