METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
34%
Diaz
66%
McGregor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Conor McGregorwinsDecisionR5 · 5:00
def. Nate Diaz · UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
McGregor
→
Actual result
McGregor wins
Decision · R5
Pre-fight analysis
McGregor holds a meaningful edge at 66% per the CFR ratings — but Diaz has real paths to victory.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 33 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Risk flags
Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
McGregor has a chin rating of 30 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
DiazMcGregor
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Diaz
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
74"
41
Age
+38
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
68.5
53.4
Performance Avg
67.0
50
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
85
Diaz
McGregor
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.4
/ 10
9.3
/ 10
7.0
Style: Pressure
7.6
3.2
Style: Volume
2.9
2 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
8 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
18
7
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance17
14Clinch7
1Ground0
Diaz
McGregor
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
5.6
/ 10
0.5
/ 10
3.9
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.3
6.3
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
10
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Diaz
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
30
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Diaz
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
L · KO · R1
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Diaz
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Diaz
McGregor
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.3
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.6
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.9
DiazMcGregor
Strike Zones
Diaz
Attacking
19 landedAbsorbing
24 absorbedMcGregor
Attacking
24 landedAbsorbing
19 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (63% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (75% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Diaz
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0
Diaz · Last 5
W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonSubmission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsDecision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalUFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisDecision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorDecision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08
McGregor · Last 5
L · KO · R1
Max HollowayKO/TKO
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierUFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierKO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneKO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovSubmission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10