UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2
Las Vegas, USA
20 Aug 2016
Welterweight
VS
32%
Diaz
68%
McGregor
Win Probability
Decision
Round 5 · 5:00
ND
Nate Diaz
22 – 13
6'0"76" reachSouthpaw41 yrsWell-Rounded
CFR 35
Conor
Conor McGregor
"The Notorious"
22 – 6
Knockout Artist2-fight slide37 yrsSouthpaw74" reach5'9"
CFR 74

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: McGregor

McGregor holds a meaningful edge at 68% per the CFR ratings — but Diaz has real paths to victory.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 39 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

McGregor has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.

McGregor has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Diaz's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

McGregor has a chin rating of 52 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Diaz
McGregor
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"+
Height
5'9"
76"+
Reach
74"
41
Age
+37
Southpaw
Stance
Southpaw
Diaz
McGregor
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
35.3
74.4
53.4
Performance Avg
68.9
50
Quality of Victory
67
100
Momentum Score
100
Diaz
McGregor
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.9
2.0
50%
Strike Accuracy
56%
2.4
Striking Style Score (/10)
9.4
2 KOs
KO Finishes
8 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
12
Head
18
7
Body
3
0
Leg
3
RangeRange
4Distance17
14Clinch7
1Ground0
Diaz
McGregor
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
5.6
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.5
3.9
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Diaz
McGregor
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
52
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
0
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
9 fights ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
27/35 fights
Chin rating based on
15/28 fights
Diaz
McGregor
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
100
100
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
W · Sub · R4
L · Dec · R5
L · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R5
Last 5
Upcoming
L · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R4
Diaz
McGregor
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
75%
80%
2
KO / TKO Wins
8
10
Submission Wins
0
4
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Diaz
McGregor
Striking2.4 / 9.4Volume3.2 / 3.0Grappling5.6 / 0.5Wrestling3.9 / 0.3Submission6.3 / 0.0Pressure7.0 / 7.7
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.4
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
9.4
5.6
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
3.9
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
6.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
7.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.7
3.2
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.0
Diaz
Strike Zones
McGregor
Diaz
Attacking
12HEAD7BODY0LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
18HEAD3BODY3LEGS24 absorbed
McGregor
Attacking
18HEAD3BODY3LEGS24 landed
Absorbing
12HEAD7BODY0LEGS19 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Diaz targets the head (63% of attacks) — McGregor absorbs 63% of strikes there
🎯McGregor targets the head (75% of attacks) — Diaz absorbs 75% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Diaz
RND
McGregor
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
0/0R20/0

Diaz · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.3
0105.2W5.0W5.0W5.2W4.5W6.0L5.5L5.2W5.5L5.0W5.5W5.5L5.5L5.0W4.5W5.5W5.5L2.8L5.0W5.7L4.6W7.1W7.5L4.5W4.8L6.6L5.9W2007-062009-092011-122016-032022-09
WinLossTrend

McGregor · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.7
0105.0W5.6W5.0W6.3W5.1W5.1W5.5W2.1L4.5W5.1W3.4L5.0W3.4L5.3L2013-042015-012016-082021-012021-07
WinLossTrend

Diaz · Last 5

W · Sub · R4
Tony FergusonRating 5.9
Submission
UFC 279: Diaz vs. Ferguson · 2022-09
L · Dec · R5
Leon EdwardsRating 6.6
Decision
UFC 263: Adesanya vs. Vettori 2 · 2021-06
L · R3
Jorge MasvidalRating 4.8
UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · 2019-11
W · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 4.5
Decision
UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · 2019-08
L · Dec · R5
Conor McGregorRating 7.5
Decision
UFC 202: Diaz vs. McGregor 2 · 2016-08

McGregor · Last 5

Upcoming
Max Holloway
UFC 329: McGregor vs. Holloway 2 · 2026-07
L · R1
Dustin PoirierRating 5.3
UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · 2021-07
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC 257: Poirier vs. McGregor · 2021-01
W · KO · R1
Donald CerroneRating 5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
L · Sub · R4
Khabib NurmagomedovRating 3.4
Submission
UFC 229: Khabib vs. McGregor · 2018-10

News & Media

Nate Diaz · Conor McGregor
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