UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway
Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
3 Jun 2017
Flyweight
VS
21%
Beltran
79%
Figueiredo
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 2 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Figueiredo
Figueiredo is a strong favourite at 79% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 42 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Figueiredo has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 17 points.
Striking split: Beltran throws more volume but Figueiredo connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Beltran's chin rating of 64 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Figueiredo has a chin rating of 58 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Beltran
Figueiredo
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"+
Height
5'5"
69"+
Reach
68"
40
Age
+38
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Beltran
Figueiredo
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
14.6
56.4
39.9
Performance Avg
57.9
33
Quality of Victory
50
45
Momentum Score
55
Beltran
Figueiredo
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.1
0.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
54%
1.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
4.3
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
9
0
Body
4
4
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance6
0Clinch0
2Ground7
Beltran
Figueiredo
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
4.3
Grappling Style Score (/10)
3.3
3.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
2.3
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Beltran
Figueiredo
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
64
58
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
3 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
6/14 fights
Chin rating based on
22/31 fights
Beltran
Figueiredo
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
45
55
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Sub · R1
W · Sub · R2
W · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · KO · R2
L · Dec · R5
Beltran
Figueiredo
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
33%
57%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
1
Submission Wins
4
2
Decision Wins
6
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Beltran
Figueiredo
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
1.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
4.3
4.3
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
3.3
3.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
2.3
3.3
Submission
Submission attack frequency
2.9
3.8
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
6.1
6.3
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
4.8
BeltranFigueiredo
Strike Zones
Beltran
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
13 absorbedFigueiredo
Attacking
13 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Beltran targets the head (60% of attacks) — Figueiredo absorbs 60% of strikes there
🎯Figueiredo targets the head (69% of attacks) — Beltran absorbs 69% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Beltran
RND
Figueiredo
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Beltran · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.3WinLossTrend
Figueiredo · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.5WinLossTrend
Beltran · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Matt SchnellRating 5.7Decision
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC 212: Aldo vs. Holloway · 2017-06
L · Sub · R1
Joe SotoRating 1.5Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Ferguson · 2016-11
W · Sub · R2
Reginaldo VieiraRating 5.2Submission
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07
W · Dec · R3
Guangyou NingRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs Masvidal · 2015-11
Figueiredo · Last 5
Upcoming
Song YadongUFC Fight Night: Song vs. Figueiredo · 2026-05
L · Dec · R3
Umar NurmagomedovRating 6.8Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · Dec · R3
Montel JacksonRating 5.4Decision
UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · 2025-10
L · KO · R2
Cory SandhagenRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · 2025-05
L · Dec · R5
Petr YanRating 7Decision
UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · 2024-11