UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson
Tampa, USA
12 Oct 2019
Women's Flyweight
VS
83%
Aldrich
17%
Mueller
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
JJ
JJ Aldrich
15 – 7
5'5"67" reachSouthpaw33 yrs2-fight win streakWell-Rounded
CFR 47
LM
Lauren Mueller
"Princess Tiger"
5 – 3
Well-Rounded3-fight slide34 yrsOrthodox67" reach5'5"
CFR 10

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Aldrich

Aldrich is a strong favourite at 83% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 37 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Aldrich has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Aldrich's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Aldrich
Mueller
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'5"
Height
5'5"
67"
Reach
67"
33+
Age
34
Southpaw
Stance
Orthodox
Aldrich
Mueller
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
47.4
10.0
42.5
Performance Avg
25.0
28
Quality of Victory
25
80
Momentum Score
28
Aldrich
Mueller
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.7
1.5
48%
Strike Accuracy
37%
2.2
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.5
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
32
Head
16
5
Body
2
1
Leg
1
RangeRange
37Distance19
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Aldrich
Mueller
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
2.4
1.5
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
1.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Aldrich
Mueller
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
84
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
1
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
12 fights ago
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
17/22 fights
Chin rating based on
4/8 fights
Aldrich
Mueller
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
80
28
2-fight 🔥 win streak
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
W · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R2
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Sub · R1
W · Dec · R3
Aldrich
Mueller
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
9%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
10
Decision Wins
1

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Aldrich
Mueller
Striking2.2 / 0.5Volume8.6 / 8.5Grappling2.2 / 2.4Wrestling1.5 / 1.7Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure2.6 / 0.8
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
2.2
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.5
2.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
2.4
1.5
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
1.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
2.6
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.8
8.6
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
8.5
Aldrich
Strike Zones
Mueller
Aldrich
Attacking
32HEAD5BODY1LEGS38 landed
Absorbing
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 absorbed
Mueller
Attacking
16HEAD2BODY1LEGS19 landed
Absorbing
32HEAD5BODY1LEGS38 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Aldrich targets the head (84% of attacks) — Mueller absorbs 84% of strikes there
🎯Mueller targets the head (84% of attacks) — Aldrich absorbs 84% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Aldrich
RND
Mueller
0/0R00/0

Aldrich · QOF Timeline

Avg: 5.0
0105.5L4.5W4.5W4.8W3.7L4.5W5.5L4.5W4.7W5.7W4.3L5.5L5.2W5.5W5.8L4.9W5.2W2016-122019-102022-062025-032026-04
WinLossTrend

Mueller · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.4
0104.5W1.5L5.5L6.1L2018-042018-112019-042019-10
WinLossTrend

Aldrich · Last 5

W · Dec · R3
Jamey-Lyn HorthRating 5.2
Decision
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W · Dec · R3
Andrea LeeRating 4.9
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Kape vs. Almabayev · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Veronica HardyRating 5.8
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Nascimento · 2024-05
W · Dec · R3
Montana De La RosaRating 5.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · 2023-10
W · KO · R2
Liang NaRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · 2023-08

Mueller · Last 4

L · Dec · R3
JJ AldrichRating 6.1
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Joanna vs. Waterson · 2019-10
L · Dec · R3
Poliana BotelhoRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 236: Holloway vs. Poirier 2 · 2019-04
L · Sub · R1
Wu YananRating 1.5
Submission
UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Ngannou 2 · 2018-11
W · Dec · R3
Shana DobsonRating 4.5
Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04

News & Media

JJ Aldrich · Lauren Mueller
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