The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rousey vs. Team Tate Finale
Las Vegas, USA
30 Nov 2013
Welterweight
VS
14%
Spencer
86%
Dober
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Dober
Dober is a strong favourite at 86% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 50 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Dober has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 25 points.
Dober has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Spencer's chin rating of 50 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Dober has a chin rating of 0 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Spencer
Dober
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'10"+
Height
5'8"
74"+
Reach
70"
38
Age
+37
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Spencer
Dober
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
9.8
59.9
30.0
Performance Avg
53.2
25
Quality of Victory
50
25
Momentum Score
100
Spencer
Dober
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.8
1.9
38%
Strike Accuracy
43%
0.8
Striking Style Score (/10)
8.5
0 KOs
KO Finishes
11 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
33
Head
11
13
Body
7
1
Leg
2
RangeRange
34Distance15
13Clinch5
0Ground0
Spencer
Dober
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.1
2.4
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.0
1.7
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.7
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Spencer
Dober
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
50
0
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
2
Sub Losses
4
Avg R3.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
2 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
8/18 fights
Chin rating based on
27/44 fights
Spencer
Dober
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
25
100
3-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 🔥 win streak
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
L · KO · R1
L · R3
L · Dec · R3
Spencer
Dober
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
11
0
Submission Wins
1
3
Decision Wins
3
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Spencer
Dober
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.8
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
8.5
2.4
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.0
1.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.7
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.7
1.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.3
8.8
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
2.8
SpencerDober
Strike Zones
Spencer
Attacking
47 landedAbsorbing
20 absorbedDober
Attacking
20 landedAbsorbing
47 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Spencer targets the head (70% of attacks) — Dober absorbs 70% of strikes there
🎯Dober targets the head (55% of attacks) — Spencer absorbs 55% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Spencer
RND
Dober
0/0R00/0
Spencer · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Dober · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Spencer · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Yancy MedeirosRating 2.8Submission
UFC 203: Miocic vs. Overeem · 2016-09
L · KO · R3
Mike PyleRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs Thompson · 2016-02
L · Dec · R3
Cathal PendredRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Siver · 2015-01
W · Dec · R3
Paulo ThiagoRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arlovski · 2014-09
L · Dec · R3
Alex GarciaRating 5.5Decision
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler · 2014-03
Dober · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Michael JohnsonRating 5.3KO/TKO
UFC 326: Holloway vs. Oliveira 2 · 2026-03
W · KO · R3
Kyle PrepolecRating 5.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: De Ridder vs. Allen · 2025-10
L · KO · R1
Manuel TorresRating 3.6KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · R3
Jean SilvaRating 7.1UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. Cortez · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Renato MoicanoRating 6.3Decision
UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · 2024-02