The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale
Las Vegas, USA
1 Jun 2012
Lightweight
VS
91%
Lawrence
9%
Cofer
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 3 · 0:19
JL
Justin Lawrence
"The American Kidd"
10 – 4
5'8"67" reachOrthodox36 yrs2-fight slideKnockout Artist
CFR 17
JC
John Cofer
"The Potter"
8 – 4
Well-Rounded2-fight slide42 yrsSouthpaw5'9"
CFR 2

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Lawrence

Lawrence is a strong favourite at 91% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 16 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Lawrence has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 50 points.

Striking split: Lawrence throws more volume but Cofer connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.

Risk flags

Lawrence's chin rating of 66 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Cofer has a chin rating of 66 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Lawrence
Cofer
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'8"
Height
+5'9"
67"
Reach
36+
Age
42
Orthodox
Stance
Southpaw
Lawrence
Cofer
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
1.8
43.3
Performance Avg
0.0
50
Quality of Victory
0
43
Momentum Score
0
Lawrence
Cofer
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.3
37%
Strike Accuracy
58%
10.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
0.0
1 KOs
KO Finishes
0 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
3
Head
0
0
Body
0
0
Leg
0
RangeRange
2Distance0
1Clinch0
0Ground0
Lawrence
Cofer
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.6
0.0
Grappling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.0
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Lawrence
Cofer
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
66
66
Moderate
Verdict
Moderate
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
1
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
3/14 fights
Chin rating based on
2/12 fights
Lawrence
Cofer
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
43
0
2-fight 📉 slide
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R3
L · KO · R3
Lawrence
Cofer
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
100%
0%
1
KO / TKO Wins
0
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
0

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Lawrence
Cofer
Striking10.0 / 0.0Volume0.7 / 0.0Grappling0.0 / 0.0Wrestling0.0 / 0.0Submission0.0 / 0.0Pressure8.0 / 0.0
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
10.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
0.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
8.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
0.0
0.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.0
Lawrence
Strike Zones
Cofer
Lawrence
Attacking
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 landed
Absorbing
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 absorbed
Cofer
Attacking
0HEAD0BODY0LEGS0 landed
Absorbing
3HEAD0BODY0LEGS3 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Lawrence targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cofer absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Lawrence
RND
Cofer
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Lawrence · QOF Timeline

Avg: 3.9
0105.5W3.8L2.4L2012-062012-082013-04
WinLossTrend

Cofer · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.0
0104.0L4.0L2012-062012-12
WinLossTrend

Lawrence · Last 3

L · Sub · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 2.4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jones vs. Team Sonnen Finale · 2013-04
L · KO · R2
Max HollowayRating 3.8
KO/TKO
UFC 150: Henderson vs Edgar II · 2012-08
W · KO · R3
John CoferRating 5.5
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06

Cofer · Last 2

L · Sub · R3
Mike RioRating 4
Submission
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Carwin vs. Team Nelson Finale · 2012-12
L · KO · R3
Justin LawrenceRating 4
KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: Live Finale · 2012-06

News & Media

Justin Lawrence · John Cofer
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