Donald Cerrone vs Eddie Alvarez — UFC Fight Analysis & Result

METRICS GUIDE

Every stat on this page, explained

All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.

UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso

Las Vegas, USA

27 Sept 2014

Lightweight

59%

Cerrone

41%

Alvarez

Win Probability

Decision

Round 3 · 5:00

Donald Cerrone

"Cowboy"

36 – 17

6'1"73" reachOrthodox43 yrs6-fight slideWell-Rounded

CFR 28

Eddie Alvarez

29 – 6

Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"

CFR 19

★ Official Result

Donald CerronewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00

def. Eddie Alvarez · UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso

Fight Report

Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result

Prediction vs Result

We predicted

Cerrone

→

Actual result

Cerrone wins

Decision · R3

Pre-fight analysis

This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 59% vs Alvarez at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Risk flags

Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

This Fight — Statistics

Actual stats from this bout

CerroneAlvarez

Sig. Strikes

0.0

Strikes / min (SLpM)

0.0

—

Strike Accuracy

—

Cerrone

Alvarez

Physical Matchup

Height · Reach · Age · Stance

6'1"+

Height

5'9"

73"+

Reach

69"

Age

+42

Orthodox

Stance

Orthodox

Cerrone

Alvarez

Composite Fighter Rating

Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability

28.2

19.3

53.0

Performance Avg

52.9

Quality of Victory

Momentum Score

Cerrone

Alvarez

Striking

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

5.6

/ 10

6.1

/ 10

6.7

Style: Pressure

5.2

3.7

Style: Volume

5.1

10 KO wins

Finish Rate (strikes)

2 KO wins

Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Strike targetStrike target

Head

Body

Leg

RangeRange

29Distance7

7Clinch2

6Ground0

Cerrone

Alvarez

Grappling

Career averages · see This Fight stats above

2.8

/ 10

1.2

/ 10

2.0

Wrestling Style (/10)

0.8

2.6

Submission Style (/10)

0.0

Submission wins

Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped

Cerrone

Alvarez

Durability / Chin

Resilience against knockouts and stoppages

2 consec. KOs

Verdict

KO risk

KO/TKO Losses

Sub Losses

Avg R1.1 stoppage

KO round context

Avg R2.0 stoppage

1 fight ago

Last KO loss

Most recent fight

—

Strikes absorbed / min

—

38/53 fights

Chin rating based on

8/35 fights

Cerrone

Alvarez

Form & Momentum

Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%

6-fight 📉 slide

Current form

L · Sub · R2

L · KO · R1

Upcoming

L · Dec · R3

L · KO · R1

Last 5

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R3

Upcoming

L · KO · R2

W · KO · R1

Cerrone

Alvarez

Finish Rate

Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission

70%

50%

KO / TKO Wins

Submission Wins

Decision Wins

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cerrone

Alvarez

Fighter 1

Fighter 2

5.6

Striking

KO power & stand-up volume

6.1

2.8

Grappling

Ground control & clinch

1.2

2.0

Wrestling

Takedown threat & defence

0.8

2.6

Submission

Submission attack frequency

0.0

6.7

Pressure

Clinch/ground work rate

5.2

3.7

Volume

Decision-pace fighting

5.1

Cerrone

Strike Zones

Alvarez

Cerrone

Attacking

42 landed

Absorbing

9 absorbed

Alvarez

Attacking

9 landed

Absorbing

42 absorbed

Targeting Overlap

🎯Cerrone targets the head (55% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 55% of strikes there

🎯Alvarez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cerrone

RND

Alvarez

0/0R00/0

0/0R10/0

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2

Jim Miller

Submission

UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07

L · KO · R1

Alex Morono

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05

Upcoming

Niko Price

UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09

L · Dec · R3

Anthony Pettis

Decision

UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05

L · KO · R1

Conor McGregor

KO/TKO

UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

Alvarez · Last 5

L · KO · R2

Dustin Poirier

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07

W · KO · R3

Justin Gaethje

KO/TKO

UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12

Upcoming

Dustin Poirier

UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05

L · KO · R2

Conor McGregor

KO/TKO

UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11

W · KO · R1

Rafael Dos Anjos

KO/TKO

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

News & Media

Donald Cerrone · Eddie Alvarez

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