UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
59%
Cerrone
41%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
DC
Donald Cerrone
"Cowboy"
36 – 17
6'1"73" reachOrthodox43 yrs6-fight slideWell-Rounded
CFR 28
EA
Eddie Alvarez
29 – 6
Well-Rounded42 yrsOrthodox69" reach5'9"
CFR 19

Combatrics Intelligence

Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics

Edge: Cerrone

This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 59% vs Alvarez at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.

Key angles

The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.

Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.

Risk flags

Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.

Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.

Cerrone
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
69"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
19.3
53.0
Performance Avg
52.9
47
Quality of Victory
50
63
Momentum Score
66
Cerrone
Alvarez
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
2.3
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
9
9
Body
0
10
Leg
0
RangeRange
29Distance7
7Clinch2
6Ground0
Cerrone
Alvarez
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Cerrone
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
66
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Cerrone
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
50%
10
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2

Style Fingerprint

Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10

Cerrone
Alvarez
Striking5.6 / 6.1Volume3.7 / 5.1Grappling2.8 / 1.2Wrestling2.0 / 0.8Submission2.6 / 0.0Pressure6.7 / 5.2
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
Cerrone
Strike Zones
Alvarez
Cerrone
Attacking
23HEAD9BODY10LEGS42 landed
Absorbing
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 absorbed
Alvarez
Attacking
9HEAD0BODY0LEGS9 landed
Absorbing
23HEAD9BODY10LEGS42 absorbed
Targeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (55% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 100% of strikes there

Round by Round

This fight · per-round breakdown

Cerrone
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0

Cerrone · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.6
0105.2W4.5W6.4W5.0W5.5L5.0W5.0W1.5L4.5W5.7L5.2W5.0W5.5W5.5W4.5W4.5W4.5W5.2W1.7L5.0W5.5W5.2W5.9W2.8L5.8L1.5L5.0W6.6L5.0W6.1W4.5W5.3L3.1L3.5L5.5L1.5L3.2L2011-022013-112016-062019-052022-07
WinLossTrend

Alvarez · QOF Timeline

Avg: 4.9
0105.5L4.5W4.5W5.2W4.1L7.1W3.4L2014-092016-012016-112018-07
WinLossTrend

Cerrone · Last 5

L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2
Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko Price
UFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5
Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5
KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01

Alvarez · Last 5

L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1
KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin Poirier
UFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1
KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2
KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07

News & Media

Donald Cerrone · Eddie Alvarez
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