METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Las Vegas, USA
27 Sept 2014
Lightweight
VS
59%
Cerrone
41%
Alvarez
Win Probability
Decision
Round 3 · 5:00
★ Official Result
Donald CerronewinsDecisionR3 · 5:00
def. Eddie Alvarez · UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Cerrone
→
Actual result
Cerrone wins
Decision · R3
Pre-fight analysis
This is a genuine toss-up — Cerrone at 59% vs Alvarez at 41% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 9 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Cerrone has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Cerrone's chin rating of 0 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Alvarez has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
CerroneAlvarez
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Cerrone
Alvarez
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'1"+
Height
5'9"
73"+
Reach
69"
43
Age
+42
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Cerrone
Alvarez
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
28.2
19.3
53.0
Performance Avg
52.9
47
Quality of Victory
50
63
Momentum Score
66
Cerrone
Alvarez
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
2.3
2.0
49%
Strike Accuracy
45%
5.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
6.1
10 KOs
KO Finishes
2 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
9
9
Body
0
10
Leg
0
RangeRange
29Distance7
7Clinch2
6Ground0
Cerrone
Alvarez
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
—
—
0.1
Sub Attempts / fight
—
2.8
Grappling Style Score (/10)
1.2
2.0
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
0.8
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Cerrone
Alvarez
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
0
54
2 consec. KOs
Verdict
KO risk
7
KO/TKO Losses
2
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.1 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R2.0 stoppage
1 fight ago
Last KO loss
Most recent fight
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
38/53 fights
Chin rating based on
8/35 fights
Cerrone
Alvarez
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
63
66
6-fight 📉 slide
Current form
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R1
Upcoming
L · Dec · R3
L · KO · R1
Last 5
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R3
Upcoming
L · KO · R2
W · KO · R1
Cerrone
Alvarez
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
70%
50%
10
KO / TKO Wins
2
6
Submission Wins
0
7
Decision Wins
2
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Cerrone
Alvarez
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
5.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
6.1
2.8
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
1.2
2.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.8
2.6
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.7
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
5.2
3.7
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
5.1
CerroneAlvarez
Strike Zones
Cerrone
Attacking
42 landedAbsorbing
9 absorbedAlvarez
Attacking
9 landedAbsorbing
42 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Cerrone targets the head (55% of attacks) — Alvarez absorbs 55% of strikes there
🎯Alvarez targets the head (100% of attacks) — Cerrone absorbs 100% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Cerrone
RND
Alvarez
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Cerrone · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.6WinLossTrend
Alvarez · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Cerrone · Last 5
L · Sub · R2
Jim MillerRating 3.2Submission
UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · 2022-07
L · KO · R1
Alex MoronoRating 1.5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · 2021-05
Upcoming
Niko PriceUFC Fight Night: Covington vs. Woodley · 2020-09
L · Dec · R3
Anthony PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · 2020-05
L · KO · R1
Conor McGregorRating 3.5KO/TKO
UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · 2020-01
Alvarez · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Dustin PoirierRating 3.4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Alvarez vs. Poirier 2 · 2018-07
W · KO · R3
Justin GaethjeRating 7.1KO/TKO
UFC 218: Holloway vs. Aldo 2 · 2017-12
Upcoming
Dustin PoirierUFC 211: Miocic vs. Dos Santos · 2017-05
L · KO · R2
Conor McGregorRating 4.1KO/TKO
UFC 205: Alvarez vs McGregor · 2016-11
W · KO · R1
Rafael Dos AnjosRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez · 2016-07