UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
Phoenix, USA
13 Dec 2014
Flyweight
VS
50%
Moraga
50%
Gates
Win Probability
Submission
Round 3 · 4:06
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Moraga
This is a genuine toss-up — Moraga at 50% vs Gates at 50% (CFR ratings). One of the hardest fights to call on the card.
Key angles
Gates has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 18 points.
Striking split: Moraga throws more volume but Gates connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Moraga's chin rating of 58 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Gates has a chin rating of 54 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Moraga
Gates
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'6"
Height
+5'8"
66"
Reach
+72"
42
Age
+39
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Moraga
Gates
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
18.3
18.0
47.9
Performance Avg
46.0
42
Quality of Victory
60
64
Momentum Score
43
Moraga
Gates
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.0
0.9
47%
Strike Accuracy
55%
3.6
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
2 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
23
Head
0
6
Body
3
0
Leg
1
RangeRange
1Distance1
3Clinch3
25Ground0
Moraga
Gates
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
3.9
/ 10
0.0
/ 10
2.7
Wrestling Style (/10)
0.0
3.8
Submission Style (/10)
0.0
3
Submission wins
0
Per-fight takedown stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Moraga
Gates
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
58
54
KO risk
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
1
1
Sub Losses
2
Avg R2.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R3.0 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
1 fight ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
14/26 fights
Chin rating based on
4/19 fights
Moraga
Gates
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
64
43
Current form
2-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Sub · R2
L · KO · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Sub · R3
Moraga
Gates
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
63%
100%
2
KO / TKO Wins
1
3
Submission Wins
0
3
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Moraga
Gates
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
3.6
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
3.9
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.0
2.7
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.0
3.8
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
6.1
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
7.8
4.1
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.5
MoragaGates
Strike Zones
Moraga
Attacking
29 landedAbsorbing
4 absorbedGates
Attacking
4 landedAbsorbing
29 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Moraga targets the head (79% of attacks) — Gates absorbs 79% of strikes there
🎯Gates targets the body (75% of attacks) — Moraga absorbs 75% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Moraga
RND
Gates
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Moraga · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.9WinLossTrend
Gates · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Moraga · Last 5
L · KO · R2
Deiveson FigueiredoRating 3.8KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Gaethje vs. Vick · 2018-08
W · Dec · R3
Wilson ReisRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Poirier vs. Gaethje · 2018-04
W · KO · R1
Magomed BibulatovRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 216: Ferguson vs. Lee · 2017-10
W · Dec · R3
Ashkan MokhtarianRating 4.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Hunt · 2017-06
L · Dec · R3
Sergio PettisRating 5.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Penn · 2017-01
Gates · Last 4
L · Sub · R2
Yuta SasakiRating 2.8Submission
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arlovski · 2016-05
L · KO · R3
Dustin OrtizRating 4KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Saint Preux · 2015-08
W · KO · R1
Darrell MontagueRating 5KO/TKO
The Ultimate Fighter: American Top Team vs. Blackzilians Finale · 2015-07
L · Sub · R3
John MoragaRating 4Submission
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic · 2014-12