UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
Calgary, Canada
21 Jul 2012
Featherweight
VS
25%
Carvalho
75%
Pineda
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 1:11
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Pineda
Pineda is a strong favourite at 75% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 36 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Pineda has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 11 points.
Striking split: Carvalho throws more volume but Pineda connects at a higher rate — quality vs quantity.
Risk flags
Pineda has a chin rating of 44 — a potential KO vulnerability.
Carvalho
Pineda
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
5'9"+
Height
5'7"
70"+
Reach
69"
46
Age
+40
Orthodox
Stance
Orthodox
Carvalho
Pineda
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
17.4
52.9
45.5
Performance Avg
47.4
43
Quality of Victory
53
55
Momentum Score
85
Carvalho
Pineda
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.2
1.1
28%
Strike Accuracy
55%
6.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
2.8
1 KOs
KO Finishes
1 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
8
Head
6
1
Body
1
1
Leg
0
RangeRange
8Distance5
0Clinch2
2Ground0
Carvalho
Pineda
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
—
—
—
Sub Attempts / fight
0.3
1.2
Grappling Style Score (/10)
6.4
0.8
Wrestling Style Score (/10)
4.5
0:00
Control Time (this fight)
0:00
0
Reversals
0
Carvalho
Pineda
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
76
44
Moderate
Verdict
KO risk
1
KO/TKO Losses
2
0
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
Avg R1.5 stoppage
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
5 fights ago
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/21 fights
Chin rating based on
14/45 fights
Carvalho
Pineda
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
55
85
Current form
3-fight 📉 slide
L · KO · R1
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
L · Dec · R3
W · Sub · R2
Upcoming
Carvalho
Pineda
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
50%
100%
1
KO / TKO Wins
1
0
Submission Wins
4
1
Decision Wins
0
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Carvalho
Pineda
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
6.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
2.8
1.2
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
6.4
0.8
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
4.5
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
8.0
5.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.2
5.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
0.8
CarvalhoPineda
Strike Zones
Carvalho
Attacking
10 landedAbsorbing
7 absorbedPineda
Attacking
7 landedAbsorbing
10 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Carvalho targets the head (80% of attacks) — Pineda absorbs 80% of strikes there
🎯Pineda targets the head (86% of attacks) — Carvalho absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Carvalho
RND
Pineda
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Carvalho · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.5WinLossTrend
Pineda · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.0WinLossTrend
Carvalho · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Darren ElkinsRating 2KO/TKO
UFC 158: St-Pierre vs Diaz · 2013-03
W · Dec · R3
Rodrigo DammRating 4.5Decision
UFC 154: St-Pierre vs Condit · 2012-11
W · KO · R1
Daniel PinedaRating 5.9KO/TKO
UFC 149: Faber vs Barao · 2012-07
L · Dec · R3
Felipe ArantesRating 5.5Decision
UFC 142: Aldo vs Mendes · 2012-01
Pineda · Last 5
L · Dec · R3
Darren ElkinsRating 6Decision
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L · Dec · R3
Nathaniel WoodRating 6.3Decision
UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · 2024-07
L · Dec · R3
Alex CaceresRating 5.7Decision
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W · Sub · R2
Tucker LutzRating 5.2Submission
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Upcoming
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