METRICS GUIDE
Every stat on this page, explained
All stats are calculated from official fight data. Style scores are Combatrics proprietary ratings updated after every event.
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Middleweight
VS
4%
Medina
96%
Gautier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:32
★ Official Result
Ateba GautierwinsKO/TKOR1 · 3:32
def. Jose Daniel Medina · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Fight Report
Pre-fight analysis · prediction vs result
Prediction vs Result
We predicted
Gautier
→
Actual result
Gautier wins
KO/TKO · R1
Pre-fight analysis
Gautier is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 75 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gautier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Risk flags
Medina's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
This Fight — Statistics
Actual stats from this bout
MedinaGautier
0
Sig. Strikes
0
0.0
Strikes / min (SLpM)
0.0
—
Strike Accuracy
—
Medina
Gautier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
74"
Reach
+81"
35
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Medina
Gautier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.4
78.0
0.0
Performance Avg
71.2
0
Quality of Victory
52
0
Momentum Score
100
Medina
Gautier
Striking
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
0.0
/ 10
10.0
/ 10
0.0
Style: Pressure
8.6
0.0
Style: Volume
3.6
0 KO wins
Finish Rate (strikes)
4 KO wins
Per-minute strike stats will populate after live card results are scraped
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
24
6
Body
3
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance26
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Medina
Gautier
Grappling
Career averages · see This Fight stats above
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Medina
Gautier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
6/12 fights
Medina
Gautier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
Upcoming
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Medina
Gautier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medina
Gautier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
MedinaGautier
Strike Zones
Medina
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedGautier
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medina targets the head (35% of attacks) — Gautier absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Gautier targets the head (86% of attacks) — Medina absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medina
RND
Gautier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Medina · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ryan GandraKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Sub · R1
Dusko TodorovicSubmission
Noche UFC: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Ateba GautierKO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseDecision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Gautier · Last 5
Upcoming
Roman KopylovUFC 332: Silva vs. Wang · 2026-10
W · KO · R2
Ozzy DiazKO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevDecision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tre'ston VinesKO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Robert ValentinKO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07