UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg
Mexico City, Mexico
29 Mar 2025
Middleweight
VS
4%
Medina
96%
Gautier
Win Probability
KO/TKO
Round 1 · 3:32
Combatrics Intelligence
Data-driven breakdown · fighter metrics
Edge: Gautier
Gautier is a strong favourite at 96% win probability per the CFR ratings. The data points decisively in one direction.
Key angles
The CFR gap of 75 points suggests a clear performance difference on paper.
Gautier has beaten significantly higher-quality opposition — a QoV edge of 52 points.
Gautier has the striking edge in both volume and accuracy.
Risk flags
Medina's chin rating of 42 flags durability concerns based on KO history.
Medina
Gautier
Physical Matchup
Height · Reach · Age · Stance
6'0"
Height
+6'4"
74"
Reach
+81"
35
Age
+24
Orthodox
Stance
Switch
Medina
Gautier
Composite Fighter Rating
Overall score combining performance, win quality, momentum & durability
3.4
78.0
0.0
Performance Avg
71.2
0
Quality of Victory
52
0
Momentum Score
100
Medina
Gautier
Striking
Significant strikes per minute & accuracy
1.6
2.5
46%
Strike Accuracy
48%
0.0
Striking Style Score (/10)
10.0
0 KOs
KO Finishes
4 KOs
Strike targetStrike target
6
Head
24
6
Body
3
5
Leg
1
RangeRange
17Distance26
0Clinch2
0Ground0
Medina
Gautier
Grappling
Takedowns, submissions & wrestling
🥊
Pure striking matchup
Neither fighter has significant grappling in their history
0
Submission wins
0
Medina
Gautier
Durability / Chin
Resilience against knockouts and stoppages
42
100
KO risk
Verdict
Never stopped
2
KO/TKO Losses
0
1
Sub Losses
0
Avg R1.0 stoppage
KO round context
—
Most recent fight
Last KO loss
—
—
Strikes absorbed / min
—
4/18 fights
Chin rating based on
5/12 fights
Medina
Gautier
Form & Momentum
Recent fight performance — most recent weighted 30%
0
100
4-fight 📉 slide
Current form
5-fight 🔥 win streak
L · KO · R1
L · Sub · R1
L · KO · R1
L · Dec · R3
Last 5
W · KO · R2
W · Dec · R3
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
W · KO · R1
Medina
Gautier
Finish Rate
Percentage of wins by KO/TKO or Submission
0%
80%
0
KO / TKO Wins
4
0
Submission Wins
0
0
Decision Wins
1
Style Fingerprint
Combatrics radar — 6 fighting dimensions scored 0–10
Medina
Gautier
Fighter 1
Fighter 2
0.0
Striking
KO power & stand-up volume
10.0
0.0
Grappling
Ground control & clinch
0.5
0.0
Wrestling
Takedown threat & defence
0.3
0.0
Submission
Submission attack frequency
0.0
0.0
Pressure
Clinch/ground work rate
8.6
0.0
Volume
Decision-pace fighting
3.6
MedinaGautier
Strike Zones
Medina
Attacking
17 landedAbsorbing
28 absorbedGautier
Attacking
28 landedAbsorbing
17 absorbedTargeting Overlap
🎯Medina targets the head (35% of attacks) — Gautier absorbs 35% of strikes there
🎯Gautier targets the head (86% of attacks) — Medina absorbs 86% of strikes there
Round by Round
This fight · per-round breakdown
Medina
RND
Gautier
0/0R00/0
0/0R10/0
Medina · QOF Timeline
Avg: 4.0WinLossTrend
Gautier · QOF Timeline
Avg: 5.3WinLossTrend
Medina · Last 4
L · KO · R1
Ryan GandraRating 3.9KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · 2026-02
L · Sub · R1
Dusko TodorovicRating 1.9Submission
UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · 2025-09
L · KO · R1
Ateba GautierRating 3.7KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03
L · Dec · R3
Zach ReeseRating 6.5Decision
UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Borralho · 2024-08
Gautier · Last 5
W · KO · R2
Ozzy DiazRating 5.2KO/TKO
UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland · 2026-05
W · Dec · R3
Andrey PulyaevRating 5.6Decision
UFC 324: Gaethje vs. Pimblett · 2026-01
W · KO · R1
Tre'ston VinesRating 5KO/TKO
UFC 320: Ankalaev vs. Pereira 2 · 2025-10
W · KO · R1
Robert ValentinRating 5.6KO/TKO
UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · 2025-07
W · KO · R1
Jose Daniel MedinaRating 5KO/TKO
UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Erceg · 2025-03